Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Traditional Roguelike Strategy game?

Strategy + Traditional Roguelike

Of 152 developers who shipped a Traditional Roguelike Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 207 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is flat on the market; 207 games are announced against 118 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 207 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 152
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $12k → $239 → $3.7k → $1.1k → $955 → $1.0k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 152
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $5.0k (exactly $5,034)
Top 5% $90k (exactly $89,704)
Developers, 2 yr 152
Released games 256
Announced 207
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 245% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Traditional Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, RPG, Roguelite
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 3,938 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $5.0k, 1 in 20 over $89k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 207 games are announced against 118 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Low Magic Age · EA older $14.99 3,342 89% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) Low Magic Studios
Jupiter Hell older $24.99 1,795 91% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,345,712) ChaosForge
Cogmind · EA older $24.99 1,560 95% 47k $1.2M (exactly $1,169,532) Grid Sage Games
ADOM (Ancient Domains Of Mystery) older $14.99 1,253 86% 38k $563k (exactly $563,474) Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno R… (Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Zeno Rogue, Krzysztof Dycha, Lucas Dieguez)
UnReal World older $14.50 1,224 93% 37k $532k (exactly $532,440) Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (… (Sami Maaranen (creator), Erkka Lehmus (co-designer))
Dungeonmans older $14.99 1,089 90% 33k $490k (exactly $489,723) Adventurepro Games LLC
Rift Wizard older $14.99 1,011 91% 30k $455k (exactly $454,647) Dylan White
Rift Wizard 2 $19.99 744 91% 22k $446k (exactly $446,177) Dylan White
Approaching Infinity $17.99 723 95% 22k $390k (exactly $390,203) IBOL
Sword of the Stars: The Pit older $9.99 1,132 83% 34k $339k (exactly $339,260) Kerberos Productions
Rift Wizard 3 · EA $19.99 308 88% 9.2k $185k (exactly $184,708) Dylan White, Khoops, Jacob Martinez
Kādomon: Hyper Auto Battlers $9.99 543 65% 16k $163k (exactly $162,737) Dino Rocket
Flick Shot Rogues $14.99 295 87% 8.9k $133k (exactly $132,662) Butter By The Fish
Dragon Quest Heroes: Torneko's Mystery Dungeon -Classic HD- $24.99 160 49% 4.8k $120k (exactly $119,952) Square Enix
Jupiter Hell Classic · EA $14.99 230 95% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) ChaosForge
Forsworn $15.99 187 90% 5.6k $90k (exactly $89,704) Resummon Studios LLC
Backpack Dungeon $3.99 656 87% 20k $79k (exactly $78,523) 夜喵
Lost in Prayer · EA $19.99 92 80% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) Nine Dots Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.