Do I ship it?

GamesTraditional RoguelikeTraditional Roguelike + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Traditional Roguelike?

Traditional Roguelike + Female Protagonist

Only 15 developers shipped a Female-Led Traditional Roguelike in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Lost in Random: The Eternal Die, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×6.1 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $1.5k. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 19 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 19 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Traditional Roguelike + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.3k → $6.3k (still earning) → $1.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Traditional Roguelike + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,875)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,029)
Top 5% $573k (exactly $572,771)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 30
Announced 19
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Traditional Roguelike; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Roguelike, Dungeon Crawler
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,613 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $570k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Traditional Roguelike with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Procedural GenerationFair71 devs · median $2.0k · 93 announced
  2. + CRPGFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  3. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $1.8k · 55 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatFair81 devs · median $1.4k · 107 announced
  5. + Sci-fiFair26 devs · median $1.4k · 23 announced
  6. + TacticalFair38 devs · median $987 · 57 announced
  7. + FantasyFair99 devs · median $898 · 125 announced
  8. + Turn-Based StrategyFair63 devs · median $779 · 101 announced
  9. + Turn-Based TacticsFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  10. + RoguelikeFair247 devs · median $599 · 314 announced
  11. + StrategyFair152 devs · median $599 · 207 announced
  12. + DeckbuildingFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced

All 54 pairs on the Traditional Roguelike page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Genso Wanderer -Reloaded- older $34.99 1,734 93% 52k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,180) AQUASTYLE
Lost in Random: The Eternal Die $24.99 764 84% 23k $573k (exactly $572,771) Stormteller Games
Tangledeep older $14.99 1,075 82% 32k $483k (exactly $483,428) Impact Gameworks
House of Necrosis $11.99 581 94% 17k $209k (exactly $208,986) Warkus
Blazing Aries older $18.99 366 87% 11k $209k (exactly $208,510) Kuroto Zakka
Shattered Planet older $14.99 406 68% 12k $183k (exactly $182,578) Kitfox Games
Is It Wrong to Repay the Debt in a Dungeon? older $17.99 118 79% 3.5k $64k (exactly $63,685) Atelier Wanko
HoloDungeon: Koyori vs HollowLive in Honsha Tower · EA $12.99 84 72% 2.5k $33k (exactly $32,735) VELUX STUDIO
Girl Frame $14.99 69 68% 2.1k $31k (exactly $31,029) Meow Run, Cat Shine
Senpai and the Mysterious Dungeon older $13.99 40 67% 1.2k $17k (exactly $16,788) Ruhut Soft
Monster Lily $14.99 14 100% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Kasha Club
[English] AbsentedAge 2: Ghostbound $15.99 8 100% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) terunon's Lab
不思議の大冒険 チルノ見参!2 $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) CrossLodge
Wonder of Blue $5.99 16 81% 480 $2.9k (exactly $2,875) Velveteen
CharmEdge Deck $2.99 28 92% 840 $2.5k (exactly $2,512) ChuQingHun
咸鱼侠大战b宫怪 $1.99 38 100% 1.1k $2.3k (exactly $2,269) 辣条辣条辣

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.