Do I ship it?

GamesSailingSailing + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Sailing game?

Sailing + Puzzle

Only 15 developers shipped a Puzzle Sailing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rogue Waters, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1368 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 31 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 31 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sailing + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $17k → $479 → $5.6k (still earning) → $5.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sailing + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $28,331)
Top 5% $859k (exactly $859,214)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 45
Announced 31
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sailing
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Sailing, Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, Philosophical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 1,818 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $480, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 31 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sailing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + UnderwaterFair24 devs · median $3.9k · 30 announced
  2. + Base BuildingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds16 devs · median $69k · 42 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds22 devs · median $45k · 73 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $38k · 40 announced
  7. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $27k · 40 announced
  8. + CraftingPoor odds26 devs · median $17k · 43 announced
  9. + Open WorldPoor odds48 devs · median $15k · 119 announced
  10. + Action RPGPoor odds18 devs · median $15k · 25 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds18 devs · median $8.5k · 55 announced
  12. + SurvivalPoor odds24 devs · median $6.6k · 63 announced

All 47 pairs on the Sailing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cat Goes Fishing older $6.99 15,431 94% 463k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,881) Cat5Games
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
WILL: Follow The Light $24.99 527 73% 16k $395k (exactly $395,092) TomorrowHead Studio
Sagres older $19.99 219 78% 6.6k $131k (exactly $131,334) ooze
Lighthouse Keeper older $11.99 336 81% 10k $121k (exactly $120,859) Stratera Games
Lazaret older $10.99 263 86% 7.9k $87k (exactly $86,711) Aegon Games
Pirates: Golden tits: Chapter 1 $9.99 153 80% 4.6k $46k (exactly $45,854) HotBunny
Here Be Dragons older $9.99 133 63% 4.0k $40k (exactly $39,860) Red Zero Games
Summer Trip Cruise older $9.99 103 90% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,869) Gius Caminiti
Flux Empyrean $14.99 63 95% 1.9k $28k (exactly $28,331) ChillCash
U.N.P.O.C. Vessel of Opportunity $12.99 70 68% 2.1k $27k (exactly $27,279) Danny Ziemer
Port Authority $5.99 31 96% 930 $5.6k (exactly $5,571) NFold Games
LOGBOOK: Beneath the Storm $13.99 13 38% 390 $5.5k (exactly $5,456) Pink Iceberg Games
Big Adventure: Trip to Europe 9 - Collector's Edition $7.99 2 50% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Avi Games
Goblin Lands $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Hot Waffle Games
Hentai Senpai: Pirates! 2 $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Kink Master Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.