Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological RPG?

RPG + Psychological

Of 191 developers who shipped a Psychological RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 392 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $980, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×406 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 392 games are announced against 119 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 392 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 191
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.3k → $1.0k → $5.1k → $898 → $2.0k → $2.2k → $861 (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 191
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $980 (exactly $980)
Top 25% $6.9k (exactly $6,924)
Top 5% $255k (exactly $254,721)
Developers, 2 yr 191
Released games 446
Announced 392
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Multiple Endings, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Emotional, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 82,277 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $980, 1 in 4 over $6.9k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 98 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 392 games are announced against 119 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
To the Moon older $9.99 69,549 95% 2.1M $21M (exactly $20,843,835) Freebird Games
Revenge on gold diggers $6.99 46,610 80% 1.4M $9.8M (exactly $9,774,117) 前方工作室
Digimon Survive older $59.99 3,124 78% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,622,263) HYDE, Inc.
Finding Paradise older $9.99 18,126 97% 544k $5.4M (exactly $5,432,362) Freebird Games
GNOSIA older $24.99 4,855 93% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,639,794) Petit Depotto
Minds Beneath Us older $19.99 5,749 96% 172k $3.4M (exactly $3,447,675) BearBoneStudio
Pathologic 3 $34.99 2,528 80% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) Ice-Pick Lodge
Class of '09: The Re-Up older $14.99 4,496 97% 135k $2.0M (exactly $2,021,851) SBN3
The NOexistenceN of you AND me $1.99 20,139 93% 604k $1.2M (exactly $1,202,298) 0x0Real Studio
The Lantern of the Laughless Saint · EA $19.99 1,460 89% 44k $876k (exactly $875,562) NerveLabs
Feign $4.99 5,270 91% 158k $789k (exactly $788,919) Teneke Kafalar
极速营救 $9.99 1,860 86% 56k $557k (exactly $557,442) 优映文化, 想象颗粒
我打不过漂亮的她们 $10.99 1,111 95% 33k $366k (exactly $366,297) 想象颗粒
Deep Sleep: Labyrinth of the Forsaken $19.99 595 94% 18k $357k (exactly $356,822) scriptwelder
The NOexistenceN of Morphean Paradox : The Forest of Silver Shallots · EA $6.99 1,697 72% 51k $356k (exactly $355,861) 0x0Real Studio
Soul Touch $9.99 1,007 97% 30k $302k (exactly $301,798) URAYAHA.TECH

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.