Do I ship it?

GamesProgrammingProgramming + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Programming game?

Programming + Space

Only 10 developers shipped a Space Programming game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Xenopurge, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $21k, ×33 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $5.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×250 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 20 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 33.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 20 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Programming + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $21k → $53k → $21k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Programming + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $5.3k (exactly $5,273)
Median $21k (exactly $20,854)
Top 25% $90k (exactly $89,955)
Top 5% $157k (exactly $156,999)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 33
Announced 20
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Programming
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 1,098 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $5.3k, median $21k, 1 in 4 over $89k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $5.3k. 20 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Programming with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Base BuildingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + Auto BattlerFair14 devs · median $14k · 14 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  4. + SandboxFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair15 devs · median $7.0k · 26 announced
  6. + AutomationFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  7. + Turn-Based TacticsFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  8. + SimulationFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  9. + RobotsFair24 devs · median $1.8k · 29 announced
  10. + CrimeFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 13 announced
  11. + Sci-fiFair56 devs · median $1.7k · 63 announced
  12. + FuturisticFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 25 announced

All 57 pairs on the Programming page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
Juno: New Origins older $19.99 3,085 89% 93k $1.9M (exactly $1,850,074) Jundroo, LLC
Duskers older $19.99 2,304 90% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,709) Misfits Attic
Infinifactory older $24.99 1,790 95% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,341,963) Zachtronics
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
SpaceChem older $9.99 2,626 95% 79k $787k (exactly $787,012) Zachtronics
Homebrew - Patent Unknown · EA older $14.99 828 71% 25k $372k (exactly $372,352) Copybugpaste
Xenopurge $12.49 419 84% 13k $157k (exactly $156,999) Traptics
Archean · EA older $19.99 241 87% 7.2k $145k (exactly $144,528) batcholi, FloDKSM
Code: Terraform · EA $14.99 252 85% 7.6k $113k (exactly $113,324) AppsMafia
MegaFactory Titan $19.99 150 76% 4.5k $90k (exactly $89,955) Q Switched Productions, LLC
I Fetch Rocks $15.99 110 94% 3.3k $53k (exactly $52,767) SarumXR
Electrogical $7.99 87 93% 2.6k $21k (exactly $20,854) kinjo
Echoes of the Architects $9.99 46 80% 1.4k $14k (exactly $13,786) GFX47
F.A.R.M.S.: Chill Factory $7.99 22 72% 660 $5.3k (exactly $5,273) Plema Crafts
GizmoLab VR $9.99 6 83% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) De Martini Games
GRID/ $4.99 5 100% 150 $748 (exactly $748) NoeNoe Games
Robbie the Robot: Space Puzzles $0.99 1 100% 30 $30 (exactly $30) Stepanoff Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.