Do I ship it?

GamesProgrammingProgramming + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Programming game?

Programming + Futuristic

Only 19 developers shipped a Futuristic Programming game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, U.V.S. Nirmana, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×2.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $450. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 25 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 25 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Programming + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.4k → $23k → $7.6k (still earning) → $748 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Programming + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $9.3k (exactly $9,348)
Top 5% $96k (exactly $95,786)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 54
Announced 25
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 275% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 28%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Programming; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Automation, Building
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Minimalist, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 687 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $9.3k, 1 in 20 over $95k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Programming with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Base BuildingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + Auto BattlerFair14 devs · median $14k · 14 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  4. + SandboxFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair15 devs · median $7.0k · 26 announced
  6. + AutomationFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  7. + Turn-Based TacticsFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  8. + SimulationFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  9. + RobotsFair24 devs · median $1.8k · 29 announced
  10. + CrimeFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 13 announced
  11. + Sci-fiFair56 devs · median $1.7k · 63 announced
  12. + IdlerFair25 devs · median $1.1k · 29 announced

All 57 pairs on the Programming page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Signal State older $19.99 649 86% 19k $389k (exactly $389,205) Reckoner Industries
Archean · EA older $19.99 241 87% 7.2k $145k (exactly $144,528) batcholi, FloDKSM
U.V.S. Nirmana $14.99 213 88% 6.4k $96k (exactly $95,786) Coincidence
MegaFactory Titan $19.99 150 76% 4.5k $90k (exactly $89,955) Q Switched Productions, LLC
Bots Are Stupid older $12.99 161 77% 4.8k $63k (exactly $62,742) Leander Edler-Golla
The Birth of an Artificial Intelligence older $34.99 54 77% 1.6k $57k (exactly $56,684) 基本操作PlayClass
Neon Noodles older $19.99 86 75% 2.6k $52k (exactly $51,574) Vivid Helix
Age Of Warbots $9.99 160 83% 4.8k $48k (exactly $47,952) VDimension
Hard Chip · EA $14.99 68 91% 2.0k $31k (exactly $30,580) Elorth
Ego's Spark older $14.99 52 92% 1.6k $23k (exactly $23,384) Satsuki
Yet Another Incremental Game (but this time about coding) · EA $7.99 39 71% 1.2k $9.3k (exactly $9,348) Raclette Games
Void Future: Hacking Protocol $14.99 17 88% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) RVL Interactive
Code, Solve, Revolt! $11.99 21 100% 630 $7.6k (exactly $7,554) Joyful Jo
GizmoLab VR $9.99 6 83% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) De Martini Games
HyperDissonance $4.99 9 88% 270 $1.3k (exactly $1,347) meta, autoselff
Circuit Stance $9.99 4 75% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Fluffy Brown

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.