Do I ship it?

Games › Programming › Programming + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Programming game?

Programming + Sci-fi

Of 56 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Programming game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×3.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is up 335% on the market; 63 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 335% on the market, 63 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Programming + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 56
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.4k → $3.3k → $14k → $959 → $1.0k → $12k (still earning) → $748 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Programming + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 56
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,222)
Top 5% $140k (exactly $140,080)
Developers, 2 yr 56
Released games 126
Announced 63
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 335% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Programming; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Automation, Simulation, Sandbox
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 4,638 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Programming with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Base BuildingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + Auto BattlerFair14 devs · median $14k · 14 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  4. + SandboxFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair15 devs · median $7.0k · 26 announced
  6. + AutomationFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  7. + Turn-Based TacticsFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  8. + SimulationFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  9. + RobotsFair24 devs · median $1.8k · 29 announced
  10. + CrimeFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 13 announced
  11. + FuturisticFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 25 announced
  12. + IdlerFair25 devs · median $1.1k · 29 announced

All 57 pairs on the Programming page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Starbase 2021 · EA · $6.5M Hacknet 2015 · $5.1M Turing Complete 2021 · EA · $3.3M Desynced 2026 · $1.7M Arctic Eggs 2024 · $1.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
Hacknet older $9.99 16,910 93% 507k $5.1M (exactly $5,067,927) Team Fractal Alligator
Turing Complete · EA older $19.99 5,520 95% 166k $3.3M (exactly $3,310,344) LevelHead
Desynced $29.99 1,879 79% 56k $1.7M (exactly $1,690,536) Stage Games Inc.
Arctic Eggs older $9.99 5,343 95% 160k $1.6M (exactly $1,601,297) The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie,… (The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie, Cameron Ginex)
Duskers older $19.99 2,304 90% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,709) Misfits Attic
Infinifactory older $24.99 1,790 95% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,341,963) Zachtronics
Nimbatus - The Space Drone Constructor older $19.99 1,758 78% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,054,273) Stray Fawn Studio
SpaceChem older $9.99 2,626 95% 79k $787k (exactly $787,012) Zachtronics
Uplink older $11.99 1,771 89% 53k $637k (exactly $637,029) Introversion Software
Craftomation 101: Programming & Craft $14.99 636 83% 19k $286k (exactly $286,009) Luden.io
Bioweaver $6.99 668 77% 20k $140k (exactly $140,080) Emprom Game, Wild Kid Games
Net.Attack() - Code or Die! $7.99 510 80% 15k $122k (exactly $122,247) ByteRockers' Games
Code: Terraform · EA $14.99 252 85% 7.6k $113k (exactly $113,324) AppsMafia
U.V.S. Nirmana $14.99 213 88% 6.4k $96k (exactly $95,786) Coincidence
MegaFactory Titan $19.99 150 76% 4.5k $90k (exactly $89,955) Q Switched Productions, LLC
Quantum Odyssey · EA $17.99 141 92% 4.2k $76k (exactly $76,098) Quarks Interactive
Icaria $24.99 79 75% 2.4k $59k (exactly $59,226) Blindsight Games LLC
I Fetch Rocks $15.99 110 94% 3.3k $53k (exactly $52,767) SarumXR

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.