Do I ship it?

GamesTurn-Based TacticsTurn-Based Tactics + Programming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Programming Turn-Based Tactics?

Turn-Based Tactics + Programming

Only 14 developers shipped a Programming Turn-Based Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rogue Voltage, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $900. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 16 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 16 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based Tactics + Programming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.3k → $2.4k → $7.5k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based Tactics + Programming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $13,786)
Top 5% $284k (exactly $284,462)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 29
Announced 16
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 500% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based Tactics
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based Tactics, Programming; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Automation, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 1,136 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 16 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TanksFair24 devs · median $3.0k · 24 announced
  2. + AutomationFair28 devs · median $2.9k · 36 announced
  3. + DiceFair47 devs · median $1.6k · 53 announced
  4. + MiningFair10 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.4k · 69 announced
  6. + IdlerFair47 devs · median $1.3k · 48 announced
  7. + Psychological HorrorFair55 devs · median $1.0k · 56 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair78 devs · median $629 · 95 announced
  9. + PsychologicalFair34 devs · median $629 · 40 announced
  10. + PuzzleFair263 devs · median $598 · 308 announced
  11. + PlatformerLong shot15 devs · median $360 · 18 announced
  12. + Local MultiplayerLong shot101 devs · median $239 · 121 announced

All 189 pairs on the Turn-Based Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Screeps: World older $19.99 1,934 86% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,820) Screeps, LLC
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik
Craftlings $19.99 311 86% 9.3k $187k (exactly $186,507) ARIANO Games GmbH
Midnight Protocol older $14.99 237 87% 7.1k $107k (exactly $106,579) LuGus Studios
Screeps: Arena $19.99 105 82% 3.2k $63k (exactly $62,968) Screeps, LLC
NET.CRAWL $9.99 46 95% 1.4k $14k (exactly $13,786) Everyone is Solid
HoneyLand older $9.99 33 93% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Caio Flavio
IT Startup: Tech Fodder $9.99 31 96% 930 $9.3k (exactly $9,291) Kupilas Media
Kinetype · EA $6.99 36 83% 1.1k $7.5k (exactly $7,549) Morlytic
Chess Brain: Dark Troops older $2.99 64 93% 1.9k $5.7k (exactly $5,741) Caio Flavio
Co OPERATION: MultiTurn $19.99 4 100% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Mind Feast Games
Circuit Stance $9.99 4 75% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Fluffy Brown
Frogrammer $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Snobfox
Cal & Bomba $9.99 3 100% 90 $899 (exactly $899) Filiokus

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.