Do I ship it?

GamesProgrammingProgramming + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Programming Idler?

Programming + Idler

Of 25 developers who shipped a Programming Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×2.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $450. Revenue is up 1165% on the market; 29 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 1165% on the market, 29 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Programming + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $538 → $5.3k (still earning) → $9.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Programming + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,075)
Top 25% $19k (exactly $19,272)
Top 5% $187k (exactly $186,507)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 44
Announced 29
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1165% on the market, supply 300% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Programming, Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Simulation, Automation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 10,370 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Programming with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Base BuildingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + Auto BattlerFair14 devs · median $14k · 14 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  4. + SandboxFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair15 devs · median $7.0k · 26 announced
  6. + AutomationFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  7. + Turn-Based TacticsFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  8. + SimulationFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  9. + RobotsFair24 devs · median $1.8k · 29 announced
  10. + CrimeFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 13 announced
  11. + Sci-fiFair56 devs · median $1.7k · 63 announced
  12. + FuturisticFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 25 announced

All 57 pairs on the Programming page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Stone Story RPG older $29.99 893 90% 27k $803k (exactly $803,432) Rex Games, standardcombo
Stuck In Time older $7.99 1,018 84% 31k $244k (exactly $244,015) Housemade Inc.
Crypto Mining Simulator older $4.99 1,419 65% 43k $212k (exactly $212,424) Satosha Nakamoti
Craftlings $19.99 311 86% 9.3k $187k (exactly $186,507) ARIANO Games GmbH
Startup Panic older $14.99 211 55% 6.3k $95k (exactly $94,887) Algorocks
The Bibites: Digital Life · EA $9.99 218 96% 6.5k $65k (exactly $65,335) Omnia Studios
Adventure Land - The Code MMORPG $14.99 144 84% 4.3k $65k (exactly $64,757) Wizard
AI Learns To Drive $7.49 208 95% 6.2k $47k (exactly $46,738) ActivationFunction
Trade Bots: A Technical Analysis Simulation older $11.99 100 63% 3.0k $36k (exactly $35,970) Cinq-Mars Media
The Legend of Pomodoro $6.99 94 82% 2.8k $20k (exactly $19,712) Tony Wang
UNHUMAN $3.99 161 73% 4.8k $19k (exactly $19,272) Kinda Lowkey Games
SysAdmin Odyssey - Back to the office · EA $8.30 40 75% 1.2k $10k (exactly $9,960) Molodoy-GameDev
Yet Another Incremental Game (but this time about coding) · EA $7.99 39 71% 1.2k $9.3k (exactly $9,348) Raclette Games
Games Tycoon $5.99 39 53% 1.2k $7.0k (exactly $7,008) Insignis Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.