Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Programming

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Programming RPG?

RPG + Programming

Only 17 developers shipped a Programming RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Omega Crafter, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×9.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×632 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 29 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 29 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Programming
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $80k → $239 → $21k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Programming: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,753)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $41,006)
Top 5% $397k (exactly $396,591)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 50
Announced 29
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 225% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Programming; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Automation, Action, Crafting
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 2,424 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $41k, 1 in 20 over $390k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 4 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Stone Story RPG 2023 · $803k hackmud 2016 · $428k Omega Crafter 2025 · $397k Onset 2019 · EA · $384k Else Heart.Break() 2015 · $260k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stone Story RPG older $29.99 893 90% 27k $803k (exactly $803,432) Rex Games, standardcombo
hackmud older $18.99 752 78% 23k $428k (exactly $428,414) ComCODE
Omega Crafter $24.99 529 77% 16k $397k (exactly $396,591) Preferred Networks
Onset · EA older $18.99 674 66% 20k $384k (exactly $383,978) Blue Mountains
Else Heart.Break() older $24.99 347 78% 10k $260k (exactly $260,146) Erik Svedäng, El Huervo / Niklas Åkerbl… (Erik Svedäng, El Huervo / Niklas Åkerblad, Tobias Sjögren, Oscar "Ratvader" Rydelius, Johannes Gotlén)
Stuck In Time older $7.99 1,018 84% 31k $244k (exactly $244,015) Housemade Inc.
Hack 'n' Slash older $13.37 538 57% 16k $216k (exactly $215,792) Double Fine Productions
Auto Rogue $6.99 719 91% 22k $151k (exactly $150,774) 定期的な宝物
Bioweaver $6.99 668 77% 20k $140k (exactly $140,080) Emprom Game, Wild Kid Games
Midnight Protocol older $14.99 237 87% 7.1k $107k (exactly $106,579) LuGus Studios
Adventure Land - The Code MMORPG $14.99 144 84% 4.3k $65k (exactly $64,757) Wizard
Word Game World $11.99 114 62% 3.4k $41k (exactly $41,006) Team9
DarkStone Restoration · EA $10.99 63 96% 1.9k $21k (exactly $20,771) Paul Cuisset
The Legend of Pomodoro $6.99 94 82% 2.8k $20k (exactly $19,712) Tony Wang
NET.CRAWL $9.99 46 95% 1.4k $14k (exactly $13,786) Everyone is Solid
Torrent Empire $7.99 24 62% 720 $5.8k (exactly $5,753) Steel Games
AI is Home - Survival Thriller $7.99 23 60% 690 $5.5k (exactly $5,513) pressanykey

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.