Do I ship it?

GamesProgrammingProgramming + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Programming Roguelike?

Programming + Roguelike

Of 20 developers who shipped a Programming Roguelike in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.5k, ×16 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×599 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 32 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 32 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Programming + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $14k → $129k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Programming + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,075)
Median $7.5k (exactly $7,485)
Top 25% $129k (exactly $128,756)
Top 5% $284k (exactly $284,462)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 33
Announced 32
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Programming, Roguelike; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Automation, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 3,976 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $7.5k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 6 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Programming with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Base BuildingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + Auto BattlerFair14 devs · median $14k · 14 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  4. + SandboxFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair15 devs · median $7.0k · 26 announced
  6. + AutomationFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  7. + Turn-Based TacticsFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  8. + SimulationFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  9. + RobotsFair24 devs · median $1.8k · 29 announced
  10. + CrimeFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 13 announced
  11. + Sci-fiFair56 devs · median $1.7k · 63 announced
  12. + FuturisticFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 25 announced

All 57 pairs on the Programming page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Duskers older $19.99 2,304 90% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,709) Misfits Attic
Uplink older $11.99 1,771 89% 53k $637k (exactly $637,029) Introversion Software
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik
Talented $5.99 1,475 91% 44k $265k (exactly $265,058) TurtleFox Games
Tower Networking Inc. · EA $19.99 317 95% 9.5k $190k (exactly $190,105) Pocosia Studios
Auto Rogue $6.99 719 91% 22k $151k (exactly $150,774) 定期的な宝物
Wireworks $6.99 614 89% 18k $129k (exactly $128,756) JJJ
Hacky $4.99 95 93% 2.9k $14k (exactly $14,222) Cuddle Code
NET.CRAWL $9.99 46 95% 1.4k $14k (exactly $13,786) Everyone is Solid
IT Startup: Tech Fodder $9.99 31 96% 930 $9.3k (exactly $9,291) Kupilas Media
Kinetype · EA $6.99 36 83% 1.1k $7.5k (exactly $7,549) Morlytic
Bioprototype $4.99 50 86% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) Emprom Game

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.