Do I ship it?

GamesProgrammingProgramming + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Programming Puzzle game?

Programming + Puzzle

Of 104 developers who shipped a Programming Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 146 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×555 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 146 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 146 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Programming + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 104
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $13k → $2.0k → $1.9k → $1.2k → $1.1k → $719 (still earning) → $848 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Programming + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 104
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $10,791)
Top 5% $263k (exactly $263,437)
Developers, 2 yr 104
Released games 337
Announced 146
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Programming, Puzzle; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Logic, Strategy
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Minimalist, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 14,740 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 146 games are announced against 70 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Programming with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Base BuildingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + Auto BattlerFair14 devs · median $14k · 14 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  4. + SandboxFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair15 devs · median $7.0k · 26 announced
  6. + AutomationFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  7. + Turn-Based TacticsFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  8. + SimulationFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  9. + RobotsFair24 devs · median $1.8k · 29 announced
  10. + CrimeFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 13 announced
  11. + Sci-fiFair56 devs · median $1.7k · 63 announced
  12. + FuturisticFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 25 announced

All 57 pairs on the Programming page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baba Is You older $14.99 21,011 97% 630k $9.4M (exactly $9,448,647) Hempuli Oy
Opus Magnum older $19.99 5,964 97% 179k $3.6M (exactly $3,576,611) Zachtronics
Turing Complete · EA older $19.99 5,520 95% 166k $3.3M (exactly $3,310,344) LevelHead
while True: learn() older $12.99 7,350 91% 221k $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) Luden.io
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
SHENZHEN I/O older $14.99 3,746 95% 112k $1.7M (exactly $1,684,576) Zachtronics
Human Resource Machine older $14.99 3,274 94% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,472,318) Tomorrow Corporation
Duskers older $19.99 2,304 90% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,709) Misfits Attic
Infinifactory older $24.99 1,790 95% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,341,963) Zachtronics
Braid, Anniversary Edition older $19.99 1,761 92% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,056,072) Thekla, Inc.
HackHub - Ultimate Hacker Simulator $16.99 937 88% 28k $478k (exactly $477,589) HotBunny
Kaizen: A Factory Story $19.99 694 91% 21k $416k (exactly $416,192) Coincidence
Database Detective: Minor Crimes Division $14.99 850 97% 26k $382k (exactly $382,245) Thomas Hsu
Craftomation 101: Programming & Craft $14.99 636 83% 19k $286k (exactly $286,009) Luden.io
ServiceIT: You can do IT $12.99 676 56% 20k $263k (exactly $263,437) picture4u
Replicube $9.99 709 96% 21k $212k (exactly $212,487) Walaber Entertainment LLC
JOY OF PROGRAMMING - Software Engineering Simulator $17.99 378 76% 11k $204k (exactly $204,007) Prof. Scherer
Craftlings $19.99 311 86% 9.3k $187k (exactly $186,507) ARIANO Games GmbH
IT Specialist Simulator · EA $13.99 433 74% 13k $182k (exactly $181,730) Pixel Team RED

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.