Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Political Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Political Sim RPG?

RPG + Political Sim

Of 51 developers who shipped a Political Sim RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 124 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $300k, ×490 the market median. Revenue is up 245% on the market; 124 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 245% on the market, 124 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Political Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $46k → $98k → $3.6k → $1.7k → $1.2k → $16k → $1.6k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Political Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,994)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $31,029)
Top 5% $307k (exactly $307,440)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 127
Announced 124
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 245% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Political Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Political Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Choices Matter, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 4,320 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $31k, 1 in 20 over $300k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 124 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Beholder older $13.99 23,199 91% 696k $9.7M (exactly $9,736,620) Alawar Stargaze (Warm Lamp Games)
Suzerain older $19.99 10,574 92% 317k $6.3M (exactly $6,341,228) Torpor Games
Tropico 5 older $19.99 9,796 78% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,874,661) Haemimont Games
Long Live The Queen older $9.99 5,832 94% 175k $1.7M (exactly $1,747,850) Hanako Games
Urban Empire older $29.99 1,903 34% 57k $1.7M (exactly $1,712,129) Reborn Games
The Guild II Renaissance older $9.99 3,540 82% 106k $1.1M (exactly $1,060,938) Runeforge Game Studio
The Life and Suffering of Prince Jerian $24.99 1,356 74% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,016,593) Schisma Games
Thank You For Your Application $19.99 953 81% 29k $572k (exactly $571,514) IceLemonTea Studio
Mind Scanners older $16.99 1,095 78% 33k $558k (exactly $558,122) The Outer Zone
Immortal Family older $13.99 1,213 54% 36k $509k (exactly $509,096) 一起来修仙工作室
The End of History · EA $28.00 366 68% 11k $307k (exactly $307,440) Tatamibeya
Astrobuilder $14.99 350 88% 11k $157k (exactly $157,395) wastudio
Lightracer: For Judge $9.99 462 92% 14k $138k (exactly $138,461) Smartmelon Games
Monarch : Medieval Remastered $11.99 365 80% 11k $131k (exactly $131,290) Mr.Lordy
Galaxy Princess Zorana $24.99 154 88% 4.6k $115k (exactly $115,454) Hanako Games
Mr. President $19.99 162 75% 4.9k $97k (exactly $97,151) Exia Labs
Fall of an Empire $29.99 80 67% 2.4k $72k (exactly $71,976) JG Games
Bonaparte - A Mechanized Revolution $24.99 72 68% 2.2k $54k (exactly $53,978) Studio Imugi

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.