Do I ship it?

GamesProgrammingProgramming + Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Programming Platformer?

Programming + Platformer

Only 6 developers shipped a Programming Platformer in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, MainFrames, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $2.5k against a market of $480. 19 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 19 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Programming + Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Programming + Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 5% $65k (exactly $64,690)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 35
Announced 19
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Programming, Platformer
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 5,555 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $64k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 19 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Programming with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Base BuildingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + Auto BattlerFair14 devs · median $14k · 14 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  4. + SandboxFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair15 devs · median $7.0k · 26 announced
  6. + AutomationFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  7. + Turn-Based TacticsFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  8. + SimulationFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  9. + RobotsFair24 devs · median $1.8k · 29 announced
  10. + CrimeFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 13 announced
  11. + Sci-fiFair56 devs · median $1.7k · 63 announced
  12. + FuturisticFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 25 announced

All 57 pairs on the Programming page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Braid, Anniversary Edition older $19.99 1,761 92% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,056,072) Thekla, Inc.
Recursed older $7.99 632 96% 19k $151k (exactly $151,490) Portponky
I hate this game older $1.99 2,466 93% 74k $147k (exactly $147,220) Pixel Error
MainFrames $12.99 166 88% 5.0k $65k (exactly $64,690) Assoupi
Bots Are Stupid older $12.99 161 77% 4.8k $63k (exactly $62,742) Leander Edler-Golla
Arcane Assembly older $7.99 134 72% 4.0k $32k (exactly $32,120) Isaac Lee
Super Markup Man older $4.99 120 81% 3.6k $18k (exactly $17,964) Roppy Chop Studios
Triple Take older $6.99 55 83% 1.7k $12k (exactly $11,534) FlyAway Studios
Re:Touring older $9.99 28 100% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) Malte Weiß
Please adopt me. # AI needs repair. older $6.99 32 62% 960 $6.7k (exactly $6,710) creati-bu
Bit ESC $14.99 8 100% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) Essssam
Dash'n'Drops · EA $6.99 12 91% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) Le Moulin aux Bulles
H4CT0PL45M $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) MetricBead
Malware City $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Ludos Forge
CollapsingWorldGuildmaster · EA $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) JAM

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.