Should I ship a Physics RPG?
RPG + Physics
Of 141 developers who shipped a Physics RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 299 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $880k, ×1416 the market median. Revenue is up 590% on the market; 299 games are announced against 89 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $419 (exactly $419) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.5k (exactly $2,514) |
| Top 25% | $31k (exactly $31,245) |
| Top 5% | $889k (exactly $889,355) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 141 |
| Released games | 427 |
| Announced | 299 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 590% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG, Physics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Adventure
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 54,654 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 63 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 299 games are announced against 89 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Dragon's Dogma 2 2024 · $92M 
Just Cause™ 3 2015 · $62M 
Blade and Sorcery 2024 · $53M 
Noita 2020 · $49M 
Tabletop Simulator 2015 · $28M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Dragon's Dogma 2 | older | $39.99 | 76,627 62% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $91,929,412) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Just Cause™ 3 | older | $19.99 | 104,140 85% | 3.1M | $62M (exactly $62,452,758) | Avalanche Studios |
| | Blade and Sorcery | older | $29.99 | 59,074 96% | 1.8M | $53M (exactly $53,148,878) | WarpFrog |
| | Noita | older | $19.99 | 81,149 95% | 2.4M | $49M (exactly $48,665,055) | Nolla Games |
| | Tabletop Simulator | older | $19.99 | 46,875 95% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,110,937) | Berserk Games |
 | Flashing Lights - Police, Firefighting, Emergency Services (EMS) Simulator | older | $24.99 | 16,166 80% | 485k | $12M (exactly $12,119,650) | Nils Jakrins |
 | Soulstone Survivors | $14.99 | 25,749 91% | 772k | $12M (exactly $11,579,325) | Game Smithing Limited | |
 | Peglin | older | $19.99 | 16,626 83% | 499k | $10M (exactly $9,970,612) | Red Nexus Games Inc. |
 | Exanima | · EA older | $14.99 | 12,684 80% | 381k | $5.7M (exactly $5,703,995) | Bare Mettle Entertainment |
 | We Who Are About To Die | · EA older | $21.99 | 8,134 88% | 244k | $5.4M (exactly $5,366,000) | Jordy Lakiere |
 | Fatekeeper | · EA | $9.99 | 10,605 80% | 318k | $3.2M (exactly $3,178,318) | Paraglacial |
 | ANEURISM IV | $9.99 | 5,686 75% | 171k | $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) | Vellocet | |
 | Dungeon Clawler | $14.99 | 3,716 88% | 111k | $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) | Stray Fawn Studio | |
 | Cloudheim | · EA | $29.99 | 1,819 81% | 55k | $1.6M (exactly $1,636,554) | Noodle Cat Games |
 | Starminer | · EA | $29.99 | 1,818 72% | 55k | $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) | CoolAndGoodGames |
 | Eternal Strands | $29.99 | 1,661 87% | 50k | $1.5M (exactly $1,494,402) | Yellow Brick Games | |
 | Bladesong | · EA | $19.99 | 1,483 95% | 44k | $889k (exactly $889,355) | SUN AND SERPENT creations |
 | Grimlord | $29.99 | 927 78% | 28k | $834k (exactly $834,022) | Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd | |
 | Lay of the Land | $19.99 | 1,190 79% | 36k | $714k (exactly $713,643) | Southern Cross Interactive |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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