Do I ship it?

GamesRTSRTS + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death RTS?

RTS + Perma Death

Only 13 developers shipped a Perma Death RTS in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Xenopurge, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×0.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300. 27 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper, while revenue is up 215% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 215% on the market, 27 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $359 → $7.2k → $719
Outcomes for RTS + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $8.9k (exactly $8,902)
Top 5% $157k (exactly $156,999)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 48
Announced 27
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 215% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Perma Death
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 620 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $720, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Crying Suns older $24.99 3,149 85% 94k $2.4M (exactly $2,360,805) Alt Shift
Infectonator: Survivors older $9.99 997 67% 30k $299k (exactly $298,801) Toge Productions
Battlevoid: Harbinger older $9.99 933 79% 28k $280k (exactly $279,620) Bugbyte Ltd.
Xenopurge $12.49 419 84% 13k $157k (exactly $156,999) Traptics
Chromosome Evil older $14.99 334 81% 10k $150k (exactly $150,200) S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L.
Skirmish Line older $9.99 353 87% 11k $106k (exactly $105,794) The Snarktopus
XO · EA older $19.99 82 87% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,175) Jumpdrive Studios
Deadnaut older $9.99 128 67% 3.8k $38k (exactly $38,362) Screwfly Studios
Role of Hex older $9.99 93 69% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) Verde
Status One $14.99 30 73% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) LastCall Studio
Neon Ascending $3.99 90 82% 2.7k $11k (exactly $10,773) TheCarmineDepth
One King Is Enough $10.99 27 77% 810 $8.9k (exactly $8,902) INVISIBLE GAMES
Tribe Nation $9.99 24 79% 720 $7.2k (exactly $7,193) Random Worlds s.r.o.
Who's beast $1.99 21 100% 630 $1.3k (exactly $1,254) Progrediens Studio
HyperCoven $5.99 4 100% 120 $719 (exactly $719) Hyperkobel
This sect accepts female disciples only $8.99 2 50% 60 $539 (exactly $539) sln
Hunting Pack $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) Vaeril Games
Coaster Clash 2k99 - Roller Coaster Defense $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) D4Y

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.