Do I ship it?

Games › PvE › PvE + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Perma Death game?

PvE + Perma Death

Of 222 developers who shipped a PvE Perma Death game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 485 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×219 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 485 games are announced against 140 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 485 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 222
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $1.0k → $300 → $1.2k → $1.9k → $1.0k → $479 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 222
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $7.8k (exactly $7,792)
Top 5% $138k (exactly $137,515)
Developers, 2 yr 222
Released games 503
Announced 485
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE, Perma Death; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Action Roguelike
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 53,688 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $840, 1 in 4 over $7.7k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 92 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 485 games are announced against 140 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Lethal Company 2023 · EA · $123M XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M Crab Champions 2023 · EA · $8.0M White Knuckle 2025 · EA · $6.8M Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days 2025 · EA · $6.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lethal Company · EA older $9.99 411,550 97% 12M $123M (exactly $123,341,535) Zeekerss
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Crab Champions · EA older $9.99 26,546 97% 796k $8.0M (exactly $7,955,836) Noisestorm
White Knuckle · EA $16.99 13,356 98% 401k $6.8M (exactly $6,807,553) Dark Machine Games
Into the Dead: Our Darkest Days · EA $24.99 9,049 89% 271k $6.8M (exactly $6,784,035) PikPok
Road to Vostok · EA $19.99 8,646 84% 259k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,006) Road to Vostok Ltd.
Phoenix Point older $24.99 5,375 73% 161k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,637) Snapshot Games Inc.
Day of Dragons · EA older $19.99 6,278 68% 188k $3.8M (exactly $3,764,917) Beawesome Games
Nuclear Nightmare · EA $6.99 15,403 81% 462k $3.2M (exactly $3,230,009) BG Productions
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers
Bootstrap Island $24.99 1,362 81% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,091) Maru VR
LET IT DIE: INFERNO $24.99 774 52% 23k $580k (exactly $580,268) SUPERTRICK GAMES, Inc.
ODDCORE · EA $12.99 1,080 96% 32k $421k (exactly $420,876) ODDCORP
Gods of Sand $9.99 720 86% 22k $216k (exactly $215,784) Achenar Studios
EverRail · EA $14.99 372 69% 11k $167k (exactly $167,288) Aesir Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.