Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Outbreak Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Outbreak Sim RPG?

RPG + Outbreak Sim

Of 21 developers who shipped an Outbreak Sim RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 28 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $890k, ×1422 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 28 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 28 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Outbreak Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $718 → $3.2k → $156k → $13k → $599 → $1.1k (still earning) → $74k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Outbreak Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,078)
Top 25% $53k (exactly $52,747)
Top 5% $893k (exactly $893,157)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 57
Announced 28
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Outbreak Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Outbreak Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Survival, Crafting, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 6,476 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $890k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 28 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Dread Dawn 2024 · $1.3M ZED ZONE 2023 · EA · $1.3M 60 Parsecs! 2018 · $992k Survival Log 2026 · $893k Rebuild 3: Gangs of Deadsville 2015 · $668k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dread Dawn $19.99 2,113 71% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,166) Kioop
ZED ZONE · EA older $11.99 3,506 81% 105k $1.3M (exactly $1,261,108) Leven Liu
60 Parsecs! older $9.99 3,310 90% 99k $992k (exactly $992,007) Robot Gentleman
Survival Log $10.99 2,709 82% 81k $893k (exactly $893,157) Midnight Workshop
Rebuild 3: Gangs of Deadsville older $14.99 1,486 86% 45k $668k (exactly $668,254) Northway Games, Sarah Northway
Broken Lines older $24.99 604 76% 18k $453k (exactly $452,819) BirdIsland/PortaPlay
Project L33T: Founders Edition $19.99 525 47% 16k $315k (exactly $314,842) Targetpoint Interactive, Holmgard Games
EVOTINCTION older $29.99 173 86% 5.2k $156k (exactly $155,648) Spikewave Games
Rogue AI Simulator older $11.99 364 82% 11k $131k (exactly $130,931) Nerdook Productions
Afterinfection $8.99 463 56% 14k $125k (exactly $124,871) RePatrick21
Survivor's Notes $6.99 352 91% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) MYSTERY CROWN, YESPLAY
Lust Epidemic 18+ $9.99 176 66% 5.3k $53k (exactly $52,747) BanzaiProject
Embers of the Night $8.99 91 73% 2.7k $25k (exactly $24,543) 巨浪游戏
Wild Alone $10.99 38 47% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) Wild Alone 21
Apocalypse Cult Leader $14.99 5 40% 150 $2.2k (exactly $2,248) Noxurtica
Evil World HOPSCA $12.99 4 0% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) XU RENYU

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.