Do I ship it?

GamesPvEPvE + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja PvE game?

PvE + Ninja

Of 34 developers who shipped a Ninja PvE game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $38k, ×62 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 32 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 32 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
PvE + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $386 → $599 → $449 → $861 → $5.9k → $809 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for PvE + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $836 (exactly $836)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $39k (exactly $38,737)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 91
Announced 32
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
PvE; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Hack and Slash, Arcade
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Stylized, Anime, 2.5D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 3,187 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $840, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $38k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

PvE with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair17 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  2. + IdlerFair161 devs · median $1.0k · 229 announced
  3. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $899 · 14 announced
  4. + TypingFair23 devs · median $719 · 27 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds44 devs · median $163k · 97 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds50 devs · median $85k · 120 announced
  7. + HeistPoor odds18 devs · median $30k · 50 announced
  8. + MMORPGPoor odds34 devs · median $25k · 248 announced
  9. + Real-TimePoor odds10 devs · median $20k · 24 announced
  10. + NavalPoor odds21 devs · median $11k · 59 announced
  11. + SpaceshipsPoor odds16 devs · median $6.3k · 20 announced
  12. + MarsPoor odds10 devs · median $6.3k · 13 announced

All 243 pairs on the PvE page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Demon Slayer -Kimetsu no Yaiba- The Hinokami Chronicles 2 $59.99 2,879 83% 86k $5.2M (exactly $5,181,336) CyberConnect2
Aragami 2 older $34.99 3,472 76% 104k $3.6M (exactly $3,644,558) Lince Works
Mahokenshi - The Samurai Deckbuilder older $24.99 464 77% 14k $348k (exactly $347,861) Game Source Studio
Swords of Gurrah · EA older $14.99 622 78% 19k $280k (exactly $279,713) Devster, LLC
Project Demigod older $19.99 397 69% 12k $238k (exactly $238,081) Omnifarious Studios LLC
Shing! older $19.99 334 79% 10k $200k (exactly $200,300) Mass Creation
Okinawa Rush older $17.99 120 82% 3.6k $65k (exactly $64,764) Sokaikan ltd
Samurai Slaughter House · EA older $29.99 51 37% 1.5k $46k (exactly $45,885) Tab Games
Old Coin Pusher Friends older $3.99 351 89% 11k $42k (exactly $42,015) STP WORKS
Mexican Ninja $16.99 76 89% 2.3k $39k (exactly $38,737) Madbricks
Arashi Gaiden $9.99 64 95% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) Statera Studio, Wired Dreams Studio
戦国英雄譚-Samurai Heroes- $9.99 47 89% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) hizaniya games
High Fructose · EA $9.99 29 89% 870 $8.7k (exactly $8,691) Chazak Games
JUST ONE MAN · EA $10.99 20 90% 600 $6.6k (exactly $6,594) Raikiri
Ninja Remix $5.00 39 74% 1.2k $5.9k (exactly $5,850) Hesoyam
NINJA KAMUI: SHINOBI ORIGINS $19.99 6 100% 180 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) G.rev Ltd.
Lightning Katana $7.99 12 100% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Juicy Pulp Games
Nightmarena $5.99 15 93% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) Colo Coko

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.