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Should I ship a Naval Combat RTS?
RTS + Naval Combat
Of 20 developers who shipped a Naval Combat RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $19k, ×12 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $38M, ×25953 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 32 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.4k (exactly $2,398) |
|---|---|
| Median | $19k (exactly $18,708) |
| Top 25% | $249k (exactly $249,444) |
| Top 5% | $39M (exactly $38,878,223) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 20 |
| Released games | 71 |
| Announced | 32 |
| Effort | 7 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $15.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- RTS
- effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
- Naval Combat
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
- Systems
- RTS, Naval Combat; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Wargame
- Price point
- $15.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
- Art
- 8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $15.99.
The top 10 games average 62% positive over 33,846 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + RomeFair
- + Outbreak SimFair
- + HorrorFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + SportsLong shot
- + PuzzleLong shot
- + World War IIPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Broken Arrow | $49.99 | 25,924 55% | 778k | $39M (exactly $38,878,223) | Steel Balalaika | |
| | UBOAT | older | $29.99 | 25,568 83% | 767k | $23M (exactly $23,003,530) | Deep Water Studio |
| | Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age | · EA | $49.99 | 6,109 90% | 183k | $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) | Triassic Games |
| | From the Depths | older | $24.99 | 11,059 89% | 332k | $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) | Brilliant Skies Ltd. |
| | Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts | older | $34.99 | 6,664 62% | 200k | $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) | Game-Labs |
| | Battlefleet Gothic: Armada 2 | older | $19.99 | 9,701 74% | 291k | $5.8M (exactly $5,817,690) | Tindalos Interactive |
| | Cold Waters | older | $39.99 | 4,603 87% | 138k | $5.5M (exactly $5,522,219) | Killerfish Games |
| | Airships: Conquer the Skies | older | $24.99 | 6,197 95% | 186k | $4.6M (exactly $4,645,891) | David Stark |
| | War on the Sea | older | $39.99 | 3,151 76% | 95k | $3.8M (exactly $3,780,255) | Killerfish Games |
| | Sailing Era | older | $24.99 | 4,565 78% | 137k | $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) | GY Games |
| | Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles | · EA | $39.99 | 633 87% | 19k | $759k (exactly $759,410) | Drydock Dreams Games |
| | Modern Naval Warfare | · EA | $59.99 | 237 58% | 7.1k | $427k (exactly $426,529) | Wave Ops |
| | Rise of Piracy | · EA | $15.99 | 520 77% | 16k | $249k (exactly $249,444) | IrishJohnGames |
| | Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare | $39.99 | 92 60% | 2.8k | $110k (exactly $110,372) | Evil Twin Artworks | |
| | Silent Shark | $17.99 | 125 98% | 3.8k | $67k (exactly $67,462) | John Goering | |
| | Corsairs - Battle of the Caribbean | $14.99 | 119 33% | 3.6k | $54k (exactly $53,514) | Fishing Cactus | |
| | City States: Medieval | $19.99 | 48 68% | 1.4k | $29k (exactly $28,786) | Reverie World Studios | |
| | Realms of Madness | $15.99 | 39 89% | 1.2k | $19k (exactly $18,708) | Robin van der Horst |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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