Do I ship it?

GamesNaval CombatNaval Combat + Crafting

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Naval Combat game?

Naval Combat + Crafting

Only 11 developers shipped a Crafting Naval Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Windrose, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $38k, ×61 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $17k; 1 in 20 cleared $43M, ×68614 the market median. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 21 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 60.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 21 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Naval Combat + Crafting
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Naval Combat + Crafting: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $17k (exactly $16,566)
Median $38k (exactly $38,170)
Top 25% $356k (exactly $356,108)
Top 5% $43M (exactly $43,089,332)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 25
Announced 21
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Naval Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Naval Combat, Crafting
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 67,595 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $17k, median $38k, 1 in 4 over $350k, 1 in 20 over $43M.

3 in 10 developers made under $17k. 21 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Naval Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + World War IIFair12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  2. + MilitaryFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 48 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced
  4. + ArcadeLong shot21 devs · median $300 · 25 announced
  5. + Open WorldPoor odds26 devs · median $38k · 80 announced
  6. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $29k · 57 announced
  7. + BuildingPoor odds6 devs · median $29k · 28 announced
  8. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $29k · 30 announced
  9. + RTSPoor odds20 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $17k · 25 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds8 devs · median $17k · 28 announced
  12. + MedievalPoor odds8 devs · median $17k · 30 announced

All 54 pairs on the Naval Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
ATLAS · EA older $29.99 37,119 46% 1.1M $33M (exactly $33,395,964) Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
From the Depths older $24.99 11,059 89% 332k $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) Brilliant Skies Ltd.
Skull and Bones older $29.99 4,650 65% 140k $4.2M (exactly $4,183,605) Ubisoft Singapore
NavalArt · EA older $19.99 2,362 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) Rigidbody
Forgotten Seas $24.99 475 75% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Pangea Game Studios
SHIPS AT WAR · EA older $14.99 369 76% 11k $166k (exactly $165,939) Golddorf Spieleentwicklung
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
The Adventurer's Domain Online · EA older $15.99 207 65% 6.2k $99k (exactly $99,298) Unbalanced Equations
ShipCrafter · EA $7.99 209 90% 6.3k $50k (exactly $50,097) Myrmecoman
Sailing alone:Aftermath · EA $18.99 67 68% 2.0k $38k (exactly $38,170) MLStudio
Dreadful River $9.99 58 72% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,383) SureAI
Dreaming Isles $6.99 79 51% 2.4k $17k (exactly $16,566) YawningDad
Storm Seas · EA $14.99 19 52% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) Dclares Dev
Mutiny's Wake · EA $19.99 2 100% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Apollo DevLabs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.