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Should I ship a Naval Combat Sandbox?
Naval Combat + Sandbox
Only 15 developers shipped a Naval Combat Sandbox in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Soulmask, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced, ×6.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $29k, ×46 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $16M, ×26425 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 57 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $6.0k (exactly $5,998) |
|---|---|
| Median | $29k (exactly $28,786) |
| Top 25% | $249k (exactly $249,444) |
| Top 5% | $17M (exactly $16,594,966) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 15 |
| Released games | 58 |
| Announced | 57 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Naval Combat
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Sandbox
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Naval Combat, Sandbox; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Open World, Action
- Price point
- $19.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 26,541 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $6.0k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Naval Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + World War IIFair
- + MilitaryFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + ArcadeLong shot
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + RTSPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + MedievalPoor odds
Comparable games
ATLAS 2018 · EA · $33M 
UBOAT 2024 · $23M 
Besiege 2020 · $22M 
VTOL VR 2017 · $18M 
Soulmask 2026 · $17M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ATLAS | · EA older | $29.99 | 37,119 46% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $33,395,964) | Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games |
| | UBOAT | older | $29.99 | 25,568 83% | 767k | $23M (exactly $23,003,530) | Deep Water Studio |
| | Besiege | older | $14.99 | 48,045 95% | 1.4M | $22M (exactly $21,605,836) | Spiderling Studios |
| | VTOL VR | older | $29.99 | 19,885 98% | 597k | $18M (exactly $17,890,534) | Boundless Dynamics, LLC |
| | Soulmask | $29.99 | 18,445 76% | 553k | $17M (exactly $16,594,966) | CampFire Studio | |
 | Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age | · EA | $49.99 | 6,109 90% | 183k | $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) | Triassic Games |
 | From the Depths | older | $24.99 | 11,059 89% | 332k | $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) | Brilliant Skies Ltd. |
 | Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts | older | $34.99 | 6,664 62% | 200k | $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) | Game-Labs |
 | Naval Action | older | $19.99 | 10,187 52% | 306k | $6.1M (exactly $6,109,144) | Bermuda Computer Club |
 | Caribbean Legend | older | $39.99 | 2,860 74% | 86k | $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) | BlackMark Studio |
 | Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates | $19.99 | 638 70% | 19k | $383k (exactly $382,609) | ReCon Team | |
 | Rise of Piracy | · EA | $15.99 | 520 77% | 16k | $249k (exactly $249,444) | IrishJohnGames |
 | Windward Horizon | $19.99 | 401 79% | 12k | $240k (exactly $240,480) | Tasharen Entertainment Inc. | |
 | Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare | $39.99 | 92 60% | 2.8k | $110k (exactly $110,372) | Evil Twin Artworks | |
 | ShipCrafter | · EA | $7.99 | 209 90% | 6.3k | $50k (exactly $50,097) | Myrmecoman |
 | City States: Medieval | $19.99 | 48 68% | 1.4k | $29k (exactly $28,786) | Reverie World Studios | |
 | The Pirate: Republic of Nassau | $19.99 | 25 68% | 750 | $15k (exactly $14,992) | Home Net Games | |
 | Mystical Maritime Adventure | $8.99 | 54 77% | 1.6k | $15k (exactly $14,564) | Ze_Yu, 烟熏渔 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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