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Should I ship a Base Building Naval Combat game?
Naval Combat + Base Building
Only 12 developers shipped a Base Building Naval Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Windrose, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $29k, ×46 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $43M, ×68614 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 30 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $899 (exactly $899) |
|---|---|
| Median | $29k (exactly $28,786) |
| Top 25% | $356k (exactly $356,108) |
| Top 5% | $43M (exactly $43,089,332) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 12 |
| Released games | 29 |
| Announced | 30 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Naval Combat
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Base Building
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Naval Combat, Base Building
- Price point
- $19.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 67,066 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Naval Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + World War IIFair
- + MilitaryFair
- + Bullet HellFair
- + ArcadeLong shot
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + RTSPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
- + MedievalPoor odds
Comparable games
Windrose 2026 · EA · $43M 
ATLAS 2018 · EA · $33M 
Soulmask 2026 · $17M 
Frozenheim 2022 · $2.1M 
ICBM 2020 · $993k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Windrose | · EA | $29.99 | 47,893 86% | 1.4M | $43M (exactly $43,089,332) | Kraken Express |
| | ATLAS | · EA older | $29.99 | 37,119 46% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $33,395,964) | Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games |
| | Soulmask | $29.99 | 18,445 76% | 553k | $17M (exactly $16,594,966) | CampFire Studio | |
| | Frozenheim | older | $19.99 | 3,463 70% | 104k | $2.1M (exactly $2,076,761) | Paranoid Interactive |
| | ICBM | older | $19.99 | 1,655 91% | 50k | $993k (exactly $992,503) | SoftWarWare, K-Project |
 | Bulwark: Falconeer Chronicles | older | $19.99 | 1,381 85% | 41k | $828k (exactly $828,186) | Tomas Sala |
 | Aircraft Carrier Survival | older | $19.99 | 1,176 59% | 35k | $705k (exactly $705,247) | Gambit Games Studio |
 | 9-Bit Armies: A Bit Too Far | older | $19.99 | 944 80% | 28k | $566k (exactly $566,117) | Petroglyph |
 | Forgotten Seas | $24.99 | 475 75% | 14k | $356k (exactly $356,108) | Pangea Game Studios | |
 | Republic of Pirates | older | $24.99 | 420 70% | 13k | $315k (exactly $314,874) | Crazy Goat Games |
 | Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare | $39.99 | 92 60% | 2.8k | $110k (exactly $110,372) | Evil Twin Artworks | |
 | Sailing alone:Aftermath | · EA | $18.99 | 67 68% | 2.0k | $38k (exactly $38,170) | MLStudio |
 | City States: Medieval | $19.99 | 48 68% | 1.4k | $29k (exactly $28,786) | Reverie World Studios | |
 | Realms of Madness | $15.99 | 39 89% | 1.2k | $19k (exactly $18,708) | Robin van der Horst | |
 | Mutiny's Wake | · EA | $19.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) | Apollo DevLabs |
 | Infinite Empire | · EA | $14.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $899 (exactly $899) | Better Tools LLC |
 | Mech and Tech 1 | $9.99 | 3 66% | 90 | $899 (exactly $899) | colmer_it UG |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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