Do I ship it?

GamesNaval CombatNaval Combat + Turn-Based Combat

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Turn-Based Combat Naval Combat game?

Naval Combat + Turn-Based Combat

Only 15 developers shipped a Turn-Based Combat Naval Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Red Rogue Sea, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $300 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 9 developers shipped in the last year and 24 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 24 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Naval Combat + Turn-Based Combat
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Naval Combat + Turn-Based Combat: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $899 (exactly $899)
Top 5% $27k (exactly $27,014)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 44
Announced 24
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Naval Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based Combat
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Naval Combat, Turn-Based Combat; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Pixel Graphics, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 128 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $150, 1 in 4 over $890, 1 in 20 over $27k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. All of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Naval Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + World War IIFair12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  2. + MilitaryFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 48 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced
  4. + ArcadeLong shot21 devs · median $300 · 25 announced
  5. + Open WorldPoor odds26 devs · median $38k · 80 announced
  6. + CraftingPoor odds11 devs · median $38k · 21 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $29k · 57 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds6 devs · median $29k · 28 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $29k · 30 announced
  10. + RTSPoor odds20 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $17k · 25 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds8 devs · median $17k · 28 announced

All 54 pairs on the Naval Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
Horizon's Gate older $19.99 1,213 94% 36k $727k (exactly $727,436) Rad Codex
Strategic Mind: The Pacific older $29.99 538 74% 16k $484k (exactly $484,039) Starni Games
Tortuga - A Pirate's Tale older $24.99 132 51% 4.0k $99k (exactly $98,960) Gaming Minds Studios
Highwater older $19.99 53 66% 1.6k $32k (exactly $31,784) Demagog Studio
Frontline: Panzer Blitzkrieg! older $9.99 102 86% 3.1k $31k (exactly $30,569) Frontline: Games Series
Naval Hurricane · EA older $9.99 91 91% 2.7k $27k (exactly $27,273) Efril
Red Rogue Sea $16.99 53 64% 1.6k $27k (exactly $27,014) Firemage Studios
Dread Admiral $13.99 59 89% 1.8k $25k (exactly $24,762) Tescrin Games
Frontline: World War II older $11.99 47 85% 1.4k $17k (exactly $16,906) Frontline: Games Series
Battleships and Carriers 2: 1940-1945 $15.99 5 60% 150 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) SLS
Mech and Tech 1 $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) colmer_it UG
Tales of Arcrath $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Codex Games USA
Midway 1981 $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) David Riggle
Coup Ahoo $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Antti Haavikko
Pirate Sagas: The Golden Age · EA $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Pirate Sagas
Caribbean Prospector · EA $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Denis Salanta
Xenocide $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Cryptomnesic

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.