Do I ship it?

GamesNaval CombatNaval Combat + Survival

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Combat Survival game?

Naval Combat + Survival

Only 18 developers shipped a Naval Combat Survival game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Windrose, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.5k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $43M, ×68614 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 36 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 36 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Naval Combat + Survival
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $15k → $38k → $156k → $296k (still earning) → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Naval Combat + Survival: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $8.5k (exactly $8,544)
Top 25% $156k (exactly $156,496)
Top 5% $43M (exactly $43,089,332)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 45
Announced 36
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Naval Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Naval Combat, Survival; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, PvE, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 68,602 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $8.5k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $43M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Naval Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + World War IIFair12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  2. + MilitaryFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 48 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced
  4. + ArcadeLong shot21 devs · median $300 · 25 announced
  5. + Open WorldPoor odds26 devs · median $38k · 80 announced
  6. + CraftingPoor odds11 devs · median $38k · 21 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $29k · 57 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds6 devs · median $29k · 28 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $29k · 30 announced
  10. + RTSPoor odds20 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $17k · 25 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds8 devs · median $17k · 28 announced

All 54 pairs on the Naval Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
ATLAS · EA older $29.99 37,119 46% 1.1M $33M (exactly $33,395,964) Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games
UBOAT older $29.99 25,568 83% 767k $23M (exactly $23,003,530) Deep Water Studio
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
From the Depths older $24.99 11,059 89% 332k $8.3M (exactly $8,290,932) Brilliant Skies Ltd.
Blazing Sails older $14.99 8,361 87% 251k $3.8M (exactly $3,759,942) Get Up Games, Iceberg Interactive
Abandon Ship older $24.99 1,151 71% 35k $863k (exactly $862,905) Fireblade Software
Aircraft Carrier Survival older $19.99 1,176 59% 35k $705k (exactly $705,247) Gambit Games Studio
Forgotten Seas $24.99 475 75% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Pangea Game Studios
Darkwater $9.99 989 77% 30k $296k (exactly $296,403) Targon Studios
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
Airships: Lost Flotilla $8.99 290 92% 8.7k $78k (exactly $78,213) David Stark
Sailing alone:Aftermath · EA $18.99 67 68% 2.0k $38k (exactly $38,170) MLStudio
Mystical Maritime Adventure $8.99 54 77% 1.6k $15k (exactly $14,564) Ze_Yu, 烟熏渔
Storm Seas · EA $14.99 19 52% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) Dclares Dev
FuJianStrike $6.99 22 100% 660 $4.6k (exactly $4,613) Mithril_055

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.