Do I ship it?

GamesNaval CombatNaval Combat + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Naval Combat game?

Naval Combat + Medieval

Only 8 developers shipped a Medieval Naval Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×6.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $17k, ×28 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×249 the market median. Revenue is up 3165% on the market; 30 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 27.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 3165% on the market, 30 announced, ×6.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Naval Combat + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Naval Combat + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8
Bottom 30% $955 (exactly $955)
Median $17k (exactly $17,383)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $28,786)
Top 5% $156k (exactly $156,496)
Developers, 2 yr 8
Released games 29
Announced 30
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 3165% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Naval Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Naval Combat
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 53,324 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 30 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Naval Combat with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + World War IIFair12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  2. + MilitaryFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 48 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced
  4. + ArcadeLong shot21 devs · median $300 · 25 announced
  5. + Open WorldPoor odds26 devs · median $38k · 80 announced
  6. + CraftingPoor odds11 devs · median $38k · 21 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $29k · 57 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds6 devs · median $29k · 28 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $29k · 30 announced
  10. + RTSPoor odds20 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $17k · 25 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds8 devs · median $17k · 28 announced

All 54 pairs on the Naval Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Besiege older $14.99 48,045 95% 1.4M $22M (exactly $21,605,836) Spiderling Studios
Frozenheim older $19.99 3,463 70% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,076,761) Paranoid Interactive
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
The Viking Way · EA older $14.99 331 42% 9.9k $149k (exactly $148,851) Ice Lava Games
The Adventurer's Domain Online · EA older $15.99 207 65% 6.2k $99k (exactly $99,298) Unbalanced Equations
Uncharted Ocean older $4.99 563 70% 17k $84k (exactly $84,281) HiRabbitgame
East India Company older $9.99 190 52% 5.7k $57k (exactly $56,943) Nitro Games
Ancient Wars: Medieval Crusades · EA older $19.99 90 82% 2.7k $54k (exactly $53,973) JOTASOFT STUDIOS
City States: Medieval $19.99 48 68% 1.4k $29k (exactly $28,786) Reverie World Studios
Realms of Madness $15.99 39 89% 1.2k $19k (exactly $18,708) Robin van der Horst
Dreadful River $9.99 58 72% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,383) SureAI
Ship of the line · EA $7.99 9 88% 270 $2.2k (exactly $2,157) YDS
Wyrd Waters $1.99 16 100% 480 $955 (exactly $955) Maximalist
Tales of Arcrath $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Codex Games USA
Xenocide $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Cryptomnesic

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.