Do I ship it?

Games › Naval Combat › Naval Combat + RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Combat RPG?

Naval Combat + RPG

Of 29 developers who shipped a Naval Combat RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $11M, ×18868 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 68 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 68 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Naval Combat + RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $99k → $897 → $485k → $15k → $78k → $600 → $17k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Naval Combat + RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $36,264)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $11,849,225)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 87
Announced 68
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Naval Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Naval Combat, RPG; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Open World, Sailing
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 56,462 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $11M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 7 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Naval Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + World War IIFair12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  2. + MilitaryFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 48 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced
  4. + ArcadeLong shot21 devs · median $300 · 25 announced
  5. + Open WorldPoor odds26 devs · median $38k · 80 announced
  6. + CraftingPoor odds11 devs · median $38k · 21 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $29k · 57 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds6 devs · median $29k · 28 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $29k · 30 announced
  10. + RTSPoor odds20 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $17k · 25 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds8 devs · median $17k · 28 announced

All 54 pairs on the Naval Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Windrose 2026 · EA · $43M ATLAS 2018 · EA · $33M Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii 2025 · $12M Azur Lane Crosswave 2020 · $7.8M Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts 2023 · $7.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
ATLAS · EA older $29.99 37,119 46% 1.1M $33M (exactly $33,395,964) Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii $59.99 6,584 88% 198k $12M (exactly $11,849,225) RGG Studio
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Skull and Bones older $29.99 4,650 65% 140k $4.2M (exactly $4,183,605) Ubisoft Singapore
Caribbean Legend older $39.99 2,860 74% 86k $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) BlackMark Studio
Sailing Era older $24.99 4,565 78% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) GY Games
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
Sid Meier's Pirates! older $9.99 6,198 94% 186k $1.9M (exactly $1,857,541) Firaxis Games
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team
Windward Horizon $19.99 401 79% 12k $240k (exactly $240,480) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
Airships: Lost Flotilla $8.99 290 92% 8.7k $78k (exactly $78,213) David Stark
Sailing alone:Aftermath · EA $18.99 67 68% 2.0k $38k (exactly $38,170) MLStudio
Curse of Pirates $9.99 121 80% 3.6k $36k (exactly $36,264) Funky Parrot
Catharage $9.99 62 82% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,581) Björn Michalski
Dreadful River $9.99 58 72% 1.7k $17k (exactly $17,383) SureAI

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.