Do I ship it?

GamesNaval CombatNaval Combat + Real Time Tactics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Combat Real Time Tactics?

Naval Combat + Real Time Tactics

Of 20 developers who shipped a Naval Combat Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $38M, ×61908 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 43 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 43 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Naval Combat + Real Time Tactics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $4.8k → $3.9k → $3.0k → $2.2k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Naval Combat + Real Time Tactics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,399)
Top 25% $110k (exactly $110,372)
Top 5% $39M (exactly $38,878,223)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 65
Announced 43
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Naval Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Naval Combat, Real Time Tactics; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Wargame, RTS
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 62% positive over 33,092 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $38M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Naval Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + World War IIFair12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  2. + MilitaryFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 48 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced
  4. + ArcadeLong shot21 devs · median $300 · 25 announced
  5. + Open WorldPoor odds26 devs · median $38k · 80 announced
  6. + CraftingPoor odds11 devs · median $38k · 21 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $29k · 57 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds6 devs · median $29k · 28 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $29k · 30 announced
  10. + RTSPoor odds20 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $17k · 25 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds8 devs · median $17k · 28 announced

All 54 pairs on the Naval Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Battlefleet Gothic: Armada 2 older $19.99 9,701 74% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,690) Tindalos Interactive
War on the Sea older $39.99 3,151 76% 95k $3.8M (exactly $3,780,255) Killerfish Games
ICBM older $19.99 1,655 91% 50k $993k (exactly $992,503) SoftWarWare, K-Project
Abandon Ship older $24.99 1,151 71% 35k $863k (exactly $862,905) Fireblade Software
Destroyer: The U-Boat Hunter older $29.99 852 73% 26k $767k (exactly $766,544) Iron Wolf Studio S.A.
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
Victory At Sea Pacific older $39.99 585 61% 18k $702k (exactly $701,824) Evil Twin Artworks
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare $39.99 92 60% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Evil Twin Artworks
Silent Shark $17.99 125 98% 3.8k $67k (exactly $67,462) John Goering
Realms of Madness $15.99 39 89% 1.2k $19k (exactly $18,708) Robin van der Horst
Catharage $9.99 62 82% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,581) Björn Michalski
Watchstander: Surface Warfare Officer Training Simulator · EA $19.99 5 80% 150 $3.0k (exactly $2,998) Enclave Gaming
Global Conflict Blue: Horizon · EA $19.99 4 100% 120 $2.4k (exactly $2,399) Wardstone Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.