Do I ship it?

Games › Naval Combat › Naval Combat + PvE

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a PvE Naval Combat game?

Naval Combat + PvE

Of 25 developers who shipped a PvE Naval Combat game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $16M, ×26425 the market median. Revenue is up 800% on the market; 72 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 800% on the market, 72 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Naval Combat + PvE
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $15k → $3.4k → $3.1k → $15k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Naval Combat + PvE: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $50,097)
Top 5% $17M (exactly $16,594,966)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 60
Announced 72
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 800% on the market, supply 155% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Naval Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
PvE
effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Naval Combat, PvE; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Exploration, Survival
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 68,879 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $16M.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. All of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Naval Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + World War IIFair12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  2. + MilitaryFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 48 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced
  4. + ArcadeLong shot21 devs · median $300 · 25 announced
  5. + Open WorldPoor odds26 devs · median $38k · 80 announced
  6. + CraftingPoor odds11 devs · median $38k · 21 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $29k · 57 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds6 devs · median $29k · 28 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $29k · 30 announced
  10. + RTSPoor odds20 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $17k · 25 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds8 devs · median $17k · 28 announced

All 54 pairs on the Naval Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Windrose 2026 · EA · $43M ATLAS 2018 · EA · $33M Besiege 2020 · $22M Soulmask 2026 · $17M Skull and Bones 2024 · $4.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Windrose · EA $29.99 47,893 86% 1.4M $43M (exactly $43,089,332) Kraken Express
ATLAS · EA older $29.99 37,119 46% 1.1M $33M (exactly $33,395,964) Grapeshot Games, Instinct Games
Besiege older $14.99 48,045 95% 1.4M $22M (exactly $21,605,836) Spiderling Studios
Soulmask $29.99 18,445 76% 553k $17M (exactly $16,594,966) CampFire Studio
Skull and Bones older $29.99 4,650 65% 140k $4.2M (exactly $4,183,605) Ubisoft Singapore
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
King of Seas older $24.99 603 57% 18k $452k (exactly $452,069) 3DClouds
Forgotten Seas $24.99 475 75% 14k $356k (exactly $356,108) Pangea Game Studios
Darkwater $9.99 989 77% 30k $296k (exactly $296,403) Targon Studios
SHIPS AT WAR · EA older $14.99 369 76% 11k $166k (exactly $165,939) Golddorf Spieleentwicklung
Corsairs - Battle of the Caribbean $14.99 119 33% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Fishing Cactus
ShipCrafter · EA $7.99 209 90% 6.3k $50k (exactly $50,097) Myrmecoman
Catharage $9.99 62 82% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,581) Björn Michalski
The Pirate: Republic of Nassau $19.99 25 68% 750 $15k (exactly $14,992) Home Net Games
Fluffy Sailors $12.99 29 79% 870 $11k (exactly $11,301) Skaldery Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.