Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Naval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval RPG?

RPG + Naval

Of 25 developers who shipped a Naval RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 48 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $3.6M, ×5762 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 48 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 48 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Naval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $99k → $656k → $15k → $240k → $629 → $1.3k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Naval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,319)
Top 25% $36k (exactly $36,264)
Top 5% $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 87
Announced 48
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Naval
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Open World, Sailing, Action RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 21,229 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $3.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 7 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 48 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Assassin's Creed Valhalla 2022 · $74M Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii 2025 · $12M Azur Lane Crosswave 2020 · $7.8M Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts 2023 · $7.0M SUNLESS SEA 2015 · $4.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin's Creed Valhalla older $59.99 41,083 70% 1.2M $74M (exactly $73,937,075) Ubisoft Montreal
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii $59.99 6,584 88% 198k $12M (exactly $11,849,225) RGG Studio
Azur Lane Crosswave older $39.99 6,537 68% 196k $7.8M (exactly $7,842,439) IDEA FACTORY, COMPILE HEART, FELISTELLA
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
SUNLESS SEA older $18.99 7,625 83% 229k $4.3M (exactly $4,343,962) Failbetter Games
Skull and Bones older $29.99 4,650 65% 140k $4.2M (exactly $4,183,605) Ubisoft Singapore
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
Caribbean Legend older $39.99 2,860 74% 86k $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) BlackMark Studio
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
Battlefleet Gothic: Armada (Classic) older $14.99 5,135 68% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,309,210) Tindalos Interactive
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates $19.99 638 70% 19k $383k (exactly $382,609) ReCon Team
Windward Horizon $19.99 401 79% 12k $240k (exactly $240,480) Tasharen Entertainment Inc.
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
Curse of Pirates $9.99 121 80% 3.6k $36k (exactly $36,264) Funky Parrot
Reclaim The Sea $11.99 41 75% 1.2k $15k (exactly $14,748) 1LastGame
Mystical Maritime Adventure $8.99 54 77% 1.6k $15k (exactly $14,564) Ze_Yu, 烟熏渔
Boomerang Jack $14.99 14 100% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Recall Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.