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Should I ship a Mystery Sailing game?
Sailing + Mystery
Only 14 developers shipped a Mystery Sailing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, WILL: Follow The Light, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.9k, ×9.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×629 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 30 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.4k (exactly $3,355) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.9k (exactly $5,930) |
| Top 25% | $15k (exactly $14,685) |
| Top 5% | $395k (exactly $395,092) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 14 |
| Released games | 28 |
| Announced | 30 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Sailing; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Adventure, Action RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 73% positive over 1,428 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.4k. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sailing with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + UnderwaterFair
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + Immersive SimPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Procedural GenerationPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Action RPGPoor odds
- + Resource ManagementPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
Comparable games
DREDGE 2023 · $36M 
Caribbean Legend 2024 · $3.4M 
WILL: Follow The Light 2026 · $395k 
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates 2026 · $383k 
Lazaret 2024 · $87k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | DREDGE | older | $24.99 | 47,624 95% | 1.4M | $36M (exactly $35,703,713) | Black Salt Games |
| | Caribbean Legend | older | $39.99 | 2,860 74% | 86k | $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) | BlackMark Studio |
| | WILL: Follow The Light | $24.99 | 527 73% | 16k | $395k (exactly $395,092) | TomorrowHead Studio | |
| | Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates | $19.99 | 638 70% | 19k | $383k (exactly $382,609) | ReCon Team | |
| | Lazaret | older | $10.99 | 263 86% | 7.9k | $87k (exactly $86,711) | Aegon Games |
 | Kingdom of Wreck Business | older | $9.99 | 127 31% | 3.8k | $38k (exactly $38,062) | WarZoneLab |
 | Flux Empyrean | $14.99 | 63 95% | 1.9k | $28k (exactly $28,331) | ChillCash | |
 | Deep Beyond | older | $8.99 | 62 87% | 1.9k | $17k (exactly $16,721) | Avix Games |
 | Void Sails | $9.99 | 49 69% | 1.5k | $15k (exactly $14,685) | Ticking Clock Games | |
 | Herald: The Interactive Period Drama – Complete Edition | $19.99 | 23 78% | 690 | $14k (exactly $13,793) | Wispfire | |
 | Tidewrack | $9.99 | 22 68% | 660 | $6.6k (exactly $6,593) | OverLKD Studio | |
 | Raccoon on a boat | $5.99 | 33 60% | 990 | $5.9k (exactly $5,930) | PUMPKIM | |
 | LOGBOOK: Beneath the Storm | $13.99 | 13 38% | 390 | $5.5k (exactly $5,456) | Pink Iceberg Games | |
 | Undesired Catch | $3.99 | 44 86% | 1.3k | $5.3k (exactly $5,267) | Ferran Costa Casanova | |
 | Fish & Hike | · EA | $6.99 | 16 93% | 480 | $3.4k (exactly $3,355) | Sleepwalking Potatoes |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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