Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Mining

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mining RPG?

RPG + Mining

Of 80 developers who shipped a Mining RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 154 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×7.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $2.9M, ×4728 the market median. Revenue is up 65% on the market; 154 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 65% on the market, 154 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Mining
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 80
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.1k → $2.3k → $21k → $11k → $4.3k → $14k → $1.7k (still earning) → $7.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Mining: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 80
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,497)
Top 25% $62k (exactly $62,338)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115)
Developers, 2 yr 80
Released games 217
Announced 154
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 65% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Mining
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Mining; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Crafting, Adventure, Building
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 67,945 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $62k, 1 in 20 over $2.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 154 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

My Time at Portia 2019 · $31M My Time at Sandrock 2023 · $29M Coral Island 2023 · $20M Sun Haven 2023 · $17M Fields of Mistria 2026 · $13M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
Luma Island $19.99 11,204 84% 336k $6.7M (exactly $6,719,039) Feel Free Games
UnderMine older $19.99 9,284 90% 279k $5.6M (exactly $5,567,615) Thorium
Melvor Idle older $9.99 14,630 90% 439k $4.4M (exactly $4,384,611) Games by Malcs
The Quinfall $9.99 12,073 50% 362k $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) Vawraek Technology Inc.
SpaceBourne 2 $19.99 4,951 75% 149k $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) Burak Dabak
Starminer · EA $29.99 1,818 72% 55k $1.6M (exactly $1,635,655) CoolAndGoodGames
Planet Centauri $14.99 2,102 75% 63k $945k (exactly $945,269) Permadeath
Return from Core $16.99 1,620 75% 49k $826k (exactly $825,714) 顽核社 FuncoreClub
UnderMine 2 · EA $19.99 828 75% 25k $497k (exactly $496,552) Thorium
The Ranchers · EA $24.99 547 57% 16k $410k (exactly $410,086) The Ranchers
Island Notes $12.99 884 82% 27k $344k (exactly $344,495) KangBaoGame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.