Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Metroidvania

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Metroidvania RPG?

RPG + Metroidvania

Of 144 developers who shipped a Metroidvania RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 401 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.7k, ×9.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $730k, ×1172 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 401 games are announced against 95 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 401 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Metroidvania
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 144
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $18k → $11k → $2.2k → $3.9k → $22k → $2.1k → $8.1k (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Metroidvania: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 144
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Median $5.7k (exactly $5,664)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $52,174)
Top 5% $736k (exactly $736,220)
Developers, 2 yr 144
Released games 502
Announced 401
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.24

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Metroidvania; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, Adventure
Price point
$10.24 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.24.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 36,375 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $5.7k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $730k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 7 in 10 of the 61 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 401 games are announced against 95 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night older $39.99 29,588 93% 888k $35M (exactly $35,496,724) ArtPlay
Batman: Arkham City - Game of the Year Edition older $19.99 55,935 95% 1.7M $34M (exactly $33,544,219) Rocksteady Studios
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
Shovel Knight: Treasure Trove older $39.99 14,211 95% 426k $17M (exactly $17,048,937) Yacht Club Games
Darksiders III older $39.99 12,519 75% 376k $15M (exactly $15,019,044) Gunfire Games
TUNIC older $29.99 16,692 91% 501k $15M (exactly $15,017,792) TUNIC Team
Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition older $29.99 16,313 78% 489k $15M (exactly $14,676,806) Gunfire Games, Vigil Games, THQ Nordic
ENDER MAGNOLIA: Bloom in the Mist $24.99 17,143 95% 514k $13M (exactly $12,852,107) Adglobe, Live Wire
Death's Door older $19.99 19,330 93% 580k $12M (exactly $11,592,201) Acid Nerve
Mandragora: Whispers of the Witch Tree $39.99 3,026 75% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Primal Game Studio
System Shock 2: 25th Anniversary Remaster $29.99 1,803 87% 54k $1.6M (exactly $1,622,159) Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studio… (Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studios, Irrational Games)
SiNiSistar 2 $14.99 3,545 90% 106k $1.6M (exactly $1,594,186) Uu
GRIME II $27.99 1,892 86% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,588,712) Clover Bite
Kotama and Academy Citadel $19.99 2,542 80% 76k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,437) Atomstring Games
Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter $24.99 1,851 79% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) Odd Bug Studio
Journey of Realm:Dawn Dew $10.99 2,233 97% 67k $736k (exactly $736,220) 葱色兔兔/Scallion Rabbit
Verho - Curse of Faces $19.99 1,219 91% 37k $731k (exactly $731,034) Kasur Games
AWAKEN - Astral Blade $19.99 1,121 82% 34k $672k (exactly $672,264) Dark Pigeon Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.