Do I ship it?

Games › Real-Time › Real-Time + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Real-Time game?

Real-Time + Medieval

Only 5 developers shipped a Medieval Real-Time game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Castle Craft, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $64k against a market of $630. 13 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 102.2 times the market baseline, revenue too few recent games to read momentum, 13 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 5

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Real-Time + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 5
Bottom 30% $4.5k (exactly $4,497)
Median $64k (exactly $64,168)
Top 25% $86k (exactly $86,342)
Top 5% $288k (exactly $287,856)
Developers, 2 yr 5
Released games 40
Announced 13
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 296,862 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $4.5k, median $64k, 1 in 4 over $86k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $4.5k. 13 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  2. + RogueliteFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  3. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  4. + HistoricalPoor odds10 devs · median $52k · 15 announced
  5. + WarPoor odds14 devs · median $37k · 20 announced
  6. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $37k · 33 announced
  7. + WargamePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + PhysicsPoor odds7 devs · median $33k · 13 announced
  9. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $32k · 17 announced
  10. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  11. + StrategyPoor odds39 devs · median $28k · 75 announced
  12. + RTSPoor odds21 devs · median $22k · 40 announced

All 40 pairs on the Real-Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition 2019 · $167M Age of Empires II (Retired) 2013 · $51M Age of Empires: Definitive Edition 2019 · $8.6M Ancestors Legacy 2018 · $6.1M Stronghold: Warlords 2021 · $5.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Age of Empires II: Definitive Edition older $34.99 158,931 94% 4.8M $167M (exactly $166,829,871) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Captur… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, CaptureAge, Tantalus Media, Wicked Witch, Feral Interactive)
Age of Empires II (Retired) older $19.99 84,818 95% 2.5M $51M (exactly $50,865,355) Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment,… (Skybox Labs, Hidden Path Entertainment, Ensemble Studios, Forgotten Empires)
Age of Empires: Definitive Edition older $19.99 14,315 84% 429k $8.6M (exactly $8,584,706) World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantal… (World's Edge, Forgotten Empires, Tantalus)
Ancestors Legacy older $34.99 5,794 80% 174k $6.1M (exactly $6,081,962) Destructive Creations
Stronghold: Warlords older $39.99 4,449 65% 133k $5.3M (exactly $5,337,465) Firefly Studios
Stronghold Crusader HD (2012) older $9.99 17,564 97% 527k $5.3M (exactly $5,263,931) Firefly Studios
Stronghold 3 Gold older $29.99 3,008 31% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,706,298) Firefly Studios
Stronghold 2: Steam Edition older $14.99 4,881 88% 146k $2.2M (exactly $2,194,986) Firefly Studios
Stronghold Legends: Steam Edition older $14.99 2,297 87% 69k $1.0M (exactly $1,032,961) Firefly Studios
Godsworn · EA older $29.99 805 93% 24k $724k (exactly $724,258) Thunderoak Interactive
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
Outside the Blocks $14.99 192 87% 5.8k $86k (exactly $86,342) Michał Kubas
Touch Type Tale - Strategic Typing $19.99 107 89% 3.2k $64k (exactly $64,168) Pumpernickel Studio
Warsong · EA $14.99 10 70% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Windforce
Yagazem Elements $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) CirilXD

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.