Do I ship it?

GamesMatch 3Match 3 + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Match 3 Tabletop game?

Match 3 + Tabletop

Of 26 developers who shipped a Match 3 Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $210 in the last 2 years and $330 over 4, against a market of $120 for a 2 / 10 build. 17 developers shipped in the last year and 21 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Match 3 + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 26
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $298 → $358 → $298 → $179 → $955 → $150 (still earning) → $505 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Match 3 + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 26
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $208 (exactly $208)
Top 25% $1.4k (exactly $1,373)
Top 5% $7.5k (exactly $7,485)
Developers, 2 yr 26
Released games 213
Announced 21
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $1.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Match 3, Tabletop; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Incremental, Point & Click, Puzzle
Price point
$1.99 typical · top 25% priced $4.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Cartoony
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $4.99 or above; the middle game at $1.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 303 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $210, 1 in 4 over $1.3k, 1 in 20 over $7.4k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. All of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Match 3 with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  2. + RomanceFair25 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Fair13 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + DemonsFair9 devs · median $779 · 4 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair12 devs · median $748 · 7 announced
  6. + ShooterFair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + MagicFair35 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  8. + Tower DefenseFair9 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  9. + Dark FantasyFair14 devs · median $539 · 16 announced
  10. + PvPLong shot21 devs · median $505 · 29 announced
  11. + CombatLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot12 devs · median $90 · 4 announced

All 75 pairs on the Match 3 page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tiny Civilization older $1.99 2,134 92% 64k $127k (exactly $127,400) 喜人一个
Sagrada older $9.99 317 94% 9.5k $95k (exactly $95,005) Dire Wolf
CrossOver: Roll For Initiative older $9.99 52 80% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Gaterooze, Ink, MicroProse Software
Zombie Solitaire 2 Chapter 2 older $8.99 57 85% 1.7k $15k (exactly $15,373) rokaplay
Picross Bonbon - Nonogram older $14.99 24 45% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Somer Games
1001 Jigsaw Legends of Mystery 1 older $14.99 24 70% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) Somer Games
Gem and Tarot $4.99 68 100% 2.0k $10k (exactly $10,180) SHEN DING
1001 Jigsaw. Earth Chronicles older $14.99 21 66% 630 $9.4k (exactly $9,444) Creobit
Christmas Mahjong older $14.99 19 68% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) Creobit
Pretty Girl Puzzle · Summer Phantom $4.99 50 98% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) Pomodoro Lab
射!就完事了 $1.99 73 80% 2.2k $4.4k (exactly $4,358) HighSpeed Games
Puppy Link - Tile Connect $2.99 17 88% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) ZT-Studio
Survive till 100 years old $1.99 25 72% 750 $1.5k (exactly $1,492) 酸菜小笋很下饭
Hentai Merge Dice $1.99 25 80% 750 $1.5k (exactly $1,492) theNeko
Block Puzzle $1.99 23 91% 690 $1.4k (exactly $1,373) Meow Meow Games
Sweet Whiskers: Cozy Kitty Stories $1.99 16 93% 480 $955 (exactly $955) Anime Aqua Games
99 Games: Puzzle, Action, Strategy, Simulation, Casual, Roguelike, Shooter, RPG & More $9.99 2 50% 60 $599 (exactly $599) Chongqing Xishou Technology Co., Ltd
Paironix $4.99 4 25% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Woobit

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.