Do I ship it?

GamesMatch 3Match 3 + Solitaire

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Solitaire Match 3?

Match 3 + Solitaire

Only 15 developers shipped a Solitaire Match 3 in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Avalon Jewels 2 Collector's Edition, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $90 in the last 2 years and $180 over 4, against a market of $120 for a 2 / 10 build. 10 developers shipped in the last year and 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Match 3 + Solitaire
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $599 → $239 → $809 → $1.2k → $0 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Match 3 + Solitaire: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $90 (exactly $90)
Top 25% $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Top 5% $4.9k (exactly $4,947)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 121
Announced 10
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
Solitaire
effort 1 / 10 · high · fixed rules, cards and a table

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Match 3, Solitaire; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Card Game, Logic
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 64 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $90, 1 in 4 over $1.1k, 1 in 20 over $4.9k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Match 3 with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  2. + RomanceFair25 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Fair13 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + DemonsFair9 devs · median $779 · 4 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair12 devs · median $748 · 7 announced
  6. + ShooterFair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + MagicFair35 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  8. + Tower DefenseFair9 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  9. + Dark FantasyFair14 devs · median $539 · 16 announced
  10. + PvPLong shot21 devs · median $505 · 29 announced
  11. + CombatLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot12 devs · median $90 · 4 announced

All 75 pairs on the Match 3 page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Faerie Solitaire Harvest older $14.99 143 79% 4.3k $64k (exactly $64,307) Subsoap
Last Resort Island older $8.99 173 87% 5.2k $47k (exactly $46,658) rokaplay
Minesweeper: Collector older $7.99 132 88% 4.0k $32k (exactly $31,640) Anton Kryukov
Faerie Solitaire Dire · EA older $19.99 41 68% 1.2k $25k (exactly $24,588) Subsoap
Zombie Solitaire 2 Chapter 1 older $8.99 90 70% 2.7k $24k (exactly $24,273) rokaplay
The Forgotten Land older $8.99 87 72% 2.6k $23k (exactly $23,464) rokaplay
Asian Riddles older $14.99 40 65% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) Creobit
Dissembler older $4.99 110 90% 3.3k $16k (exactly $16,467) Ian MacLarty
Zombie Solitaire 2 Chapter 2 older $8.99 57 85% 1.7k $15k (exactly $15,373) rokaplay
Zombie Solitaire 2 Chapter 3 older $8.99 47 80% 1.4k $13k (exactly $12,676) rokaplay
Avalon Jewels 2 Collector's Edition $14.99 11 90% 330 $4.9k (exactly $4,947) Anawiki Games
Seven Seas Jewels 2 Collector's Edition $15.99 6 100% 180 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) Anawiki Games
Spellarium 12 $12.99 4 100% 120 $1.6k (exactly $1,559) LGT SIA
Puppy Link - Tile Connect $2.99 17 88% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) ZT-Studio
Jixo: The Season of Joy Collector's Edition $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) MixoGames Ltd.
A Very Simple Puzzle... $3.99 10 100% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) Magari
Cursed House 7 $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) LGT SIA
Cursed House 8 $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) LGT SIA
Collect Mania $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) magnussoft
Cursed House 6 $9.99 2 100% 60 $599 (exactly $599) LGT SIA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.