Do I ship it?

GamesMatch 3Match 3 + Sokoban

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sokoban Match 3?

Match 3 + Sokoban

Only 6 developers shipped a Sokoban Match 3 in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Watermelon (with a Broken Head) Game, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $900 against a market of $120. 7 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 7 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Match 3 + Sokoban
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Match 3 + Sokoban: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $955 (exactly $955)
Top 5% $1.9k (exactly $1,884)
Developers, 2 yr 6
Released games 33
Announced 7
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
Sokoban
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid pushing rules and level files

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Match 3, Sokoban
Price point
$2.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 855 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $900, 1 in 4 over $950, 1 in 20 over $1.8k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 7 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Match 3 with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  2. + RomanceFair25 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Fair13 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + DemonsFair9 devs · median $779 · 4 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair12 devs · median $748 · 7 announced
  6. + ShooterFair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + MagicFair35 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  8. + Tower DefenseFair9 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  9. + Dark FantasyFair14 devs · median $539 · 16 announced
  10. + PvPLong shot21 devs · median $505 · 29 announced
  11. + CombatLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot12 devs · median $90 · 4 announced

All 75 pairs on the Match 3 page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Waifu Secret older $1.99 677 72% 20k $40k (exactly $40,417) Romantic Room
Threes! older $5.99 56 96% 1.7k $10k (exactly $10,063) Asher Vollmer, Greg Wohlwend, BigGiantC… (Asher Vollmer, Greg Wohlwend, BigGiantCircles)
Laruaville 11 Match 3 Puzzle older $9.99 10 90% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) LGT SIA
Cursed House 12 older $12.99 7 85% 210 $2.7k (exactly $2,728) LGT SIA
Hentai ASMR older $1.99 35 60% 1.1k $2.1k (exactly $2,090) Boom Team
Cursed House 13 older $12.99 5 100% 150 $1.9k (exactly $1,948) LGT SIA
Watermelon (with a Broken Head) Game $2.99 21 80% 630 $1.9k (exactly $1,884) SillyOven
Dale Hardshovel HD older $3.99 13 61% 390 $1.6k (exactly $1,556) phime studio LLC
SokoMatch: Lizard Saga older $1.99 26 96% 780 $1.6k (exactly $1,552) ShortStackStudio
Cursed House 10 - Match 3 Puzzle older $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) LGT SIA
Cursed House 16 $12.99 3 100% 90 $1.2k (exactly $1,169) LGT SIA
Idol Hacked! $1.99 16 43% 480 $955 (exactly $955) theNeko
Cursed House 8 $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) LGT SIA
Cursed House 15 $12.99 2 100% 60 $779 (exactly $779) LGT SIA
Morphing Blocks $0.99 17 100% 510 $505 (exactly $505) J. TAO
Cursed House 14 $12.99 1 100% 30 $390 (exactly $390) LGT SIA
Meme Merge 3D $0.99 4 100% 120 $119 (exactly $119) PixelBrain Studios
2048 $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Raghavendra

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.