Should I ship a Match 3 RPG?
RPG + Match 3
Of 34 developers who shipped a Match 3 RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×326 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 40 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $208 (exactly $208) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.7k (exactly $1,676) |
| Top 25% | $9.4k (exactly $9,352) |
| Top 5% | $204k (exactly $204,498) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 34 |
| Released games | 192 |
| Announced | 40 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG, Match 3; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Roguelike
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Comedy, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 2,078 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
HuniePop 2015 · $7.2M 
Mirror 2: Project X 2022 · EA · $6.6M 
HuniePop 2: Double Date 2021 · $4.9M 
Mirror 2018 · $4.3M 
The Legend of Bum-Bo 2019 · $2.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | HuniePop | older | $9.99 | 23,989 96% | 720k | $7.2M (exactly $7,189,503) | HuniePot |
| | Mirror 2: Project X | · EA older | $1.99 | 111,251 24% | 3.3M | $6.6M (exactly $6,641,685) | KAGAMI Ⅱ WORKs |
| | HuniePop 2: Double Date | older | $19.99 | 8,149 91% | 244k | $4.9M (exactly $4,886,955) | HuniePot |
| | Mirror | older | $1.99 | 72,623 96% | 2.2M | $4.3M (exactly $4,335,593) | KAGAMI WORKS |
| | The Legend of Bum-Bo | older | $14.99 | 5,654 80% | 170k | $2.5M (exactly $2,542,604) | Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Rid… (Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Ridiculon) |
 | Battle Chef Brigade Deluxe | older | $19.99 | 1,624 95% | 49k | $974k (exactly $973,913) | Trinket Studios |
 | ISEKAI QUEST | older | $3.99 | 3,679 85% | 110k | $440k (exactly $440,376) | Studio Ginkgo |
 | Ironcast | older | $14.99 | 774 72% | 23k | $348k (exactly $348,068) | Dreadbit |
 | Humans are not that against Lizardwomen | older | $3.99 | 2,807 93% | 84k | $336k (exactly $335,998) | Hue Axis Entertainment |
 | PuzzleQuest: Challenge of the Warlords | older | $9.99 | 1,025 86% | 31k | $307k (exactly $307,192) | Infinite Interactive |
 | Puzzle Quest: Immortal Edition | $14.99 | 522 77% | 16k | $235k (exactly $234,743) | Infinity Plus 2 | |
 | Creepy Redneck Dinosaur Mansion 3 | $19.99 | 341 96% | 10k | $204k (exactly $204,498) | Strange Scaffold | |
 | Humans are not that against Lizardwomen 2 | $9.99 | 389 93% | 12k | $117k (exactly $116,583) | Hue Axis Entertainment | |
 | Lucky Hunter | $5.99 | 413 89% | 12k | $74k (exactly $74,216) | 159 Studio | |
 | Hyperborea: Hornysolation | $4.99 | 164 73% | 4.9k | $25k (exactly $24,551) | Hue Axis Entertainment | |
 | Kaamos: Puzzle Roguelike | $9.99 | 73 87% | 2.2k | $22k (exactly $21,878) | Pepperbox Studios | |
 | Glamour Kaleidoscope | $7.99 | 90 75% | 2.7k | $22k (exactly $21,573) | Cup Dragon | |
 | Roguematch : The Extraplanar Invasion | $14.99 | 33 84% | 990 | $15k (exactly $14,840) | Starstruck Games | |
 | Naughty Store Manager | $11.99 | 27 33% | 810 | $9.7k (exactly $9,712) | eroverse | |
 | 转生魔塔 | $11.99 | 26 88% | 780 | $9.4k (exactly $9,352) | Zeros |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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