Do I ship it?

GamesMatch 3Match 3 + Point & Click

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Match 3 Point & Click game?

Match 3 + Point & Click

Of 48 developers who shipped a Match 3 Point & Click game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $180 over 4, against a market of $120 for a 2 / 10 build. 23 developers shipped in the last year and 23 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 23 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Match 3 + Point & Click
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $719 → $119 → $358 → $955 → $252 → $419 → $60 (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Match 3 + Point & Click: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $179 (exactly $179)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,492)
Top 5% $34k (exactly $33,762)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 257
Announced 23
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Match 3
effort 2 / 10 · high · grid matching rules and cascades
Point & Click
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Match 3, Point & Click; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Puzzle, Adventure, Incremental
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $7.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $7.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 1,061 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $180, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $33k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. Nearly all of the 57 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Match 3 with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Interactive FictionFair12 devs · median $4.8k · 7 announced
  2. + RomanceFair25 devs · median $1.3k · 30 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Fair13 devs · median $1.2k · 3 announced
  4. + DemonsFair9 devs · median $779 · 4 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair12 devs · median $748 · 7 announced
  6. + ShooterFair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + MagicFair35 devs · median $718 · 36 announced
  8. + Tower DefenseFair9 devs · median $599 · 9 announced
  9. + Dark FantasyFair14 devs · median $539 · 16 announced
  10. + PvPLong shot21 devs · median $505 · 29 announced
  11. + CombatLong shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot12 devs · median $90 · 4 announced

All 75 pairs on the Match 3 page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HuniePop older $9.99 23,989 96% 720k $7.2M (exactly $7,189,503) HuniePot
LOLLIPOP! older $4.99 1,318 75% 40k $197k (exactly $197,305) 430Games, __Ja__ga__imo__
Mindcop $14.99 413 94% 12k $186k (exactly $185,726) Andre Gareis
PancitoMerge $7.99 158 99% 4.7k $38k (exactly $37,873) Fáyer, Sketchy Ceviche
Furry Adventure Club and the Holy Grail 🦁 $6.99 161 93% 4.8k $34k (exactly $33,762) Furry Dreams Lab
Cave Quest older $9.99 84 94% 2.5k $25k (exactly $25,175) MD Studio
Kaamos: Puzzle Roguelike $9.99 73 87% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) Pepperbox Studios
Cave Quest 2 older $12.99 52 92% 1.6k $20k (exactly $20,264) MD Studio
Project: Sword Art older $4.99 124 50% 3.7k $19k (exactly $18,563) 430Games, BOA
Asian Riddles older $14.99 40 65% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,988) Creobit
Rune Ark $6.99 29 65% 870 $6.1k (exactly $6,081) WelesGames
Project: Stellar Girls $4.99 32 46% 960 $4.8k (exactly $4,790) 430Games
射!就完事了 $1.99 73 80% 2.2k $4.4k (exactly $4,358) HighSpeed Games
Shoot! & Ahhhhh~ $1.99 65 83% 2.0k $3.9k (exactly $3,880) HighSpeed Games
Macro Data Refinement Simulator $4.99 18 77% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Macro Data Refinement Dept
Toffee Cats $1.99 39 100% 1.2k $2.3k (exactly $2,328) traint

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.