Do I ship it?

GamesNaval CombatNaval Combat + Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Management Naval Combat game?

Naval Combat + Management

Only 10 developers shipped a Management Naval Combat game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.5k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1209 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 33 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.6 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 33 announced, ×5.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Naval Combat + Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0M → $99k → $566k → $3.0k → $54k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Naval Combat + Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $3.0k (exactly $2,998)
Median $8.5k (exactly $8,544)
Top 25% $54k (exactly $53,514)
Top 5% $759k (exactly $759,410)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 46
Announced 33
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Naval Combat
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Naval Combat, Management
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 968 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.0k, median $8.5k, 1 in 4 over $53k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 33 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Naval Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + World War IIFair12 devs · median $2.7k · 11 announced
  2. + MilitaryFair37 devs · median $2.2k · 48 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair14 devs · median $1.1k · 16 announced
  4. + ArcadeLong shot21 devs · median $300 · 25 announced
  5. + Open WorldPoor odds26 devs · median $38k · 80 announced
  6. + CraftingPoor odds11 devs · median $38k · 21 announced
  7. + SandboxPoor odds15 devs · median $29k · 57 announced
  8. + BuildingPoor odds6 devs · median $29k · 28 announced
  9. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $29k · 30 announced
  10. + RTSPoor odds20 devs · median $19k · 32 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds14 devs · median $17k · 25 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds8 devs · median $17k · 28 announced

All 54 pairs on the Naval Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
UBOAT older $29.99 25,568 83% 767k $23M (exactly $23,003,530) Deep Water Studio
Sailing Era older $24.99 4,565 78% 137k $3.4M (exactly $3,422,380) GY Games
Frozenheim older $19.99 3,463 70% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,076,761) Paranoid Interactive
Port Royale 4 older $39.99 1,405 56% 42k $1.7M (exactly $1,685,578) Gaming Minds
Rule the Waves 3 older $39.99 855 87% 26k $1.0M (exactly $1,025,744) Naval Warfare Simulations
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
Aircraft Carrier Survival older $19.99 1,176 59% 35k $705k (exactly $705,247) Gambit Games Studio
9-Bit Armies: A Bit Too Far older $19.99 944 80% 28k $566k (exactly $566,117) Petroglyph
Port Royale 3 older $14.99 1,204 72% 36k $541k (exactly $541,439) Gaming Minds Studios
Boat Crew · EA older $24.99 431 89% 13k $323k (exactly $323,121) Tabbing Tabby
Victory at Sea Atlantic - World War II Naval Warfare $39.99 92 60% 2.8k $110k (exactly $110,372) Evil Twin Artworks
Corsairs - Battle of the Caribbean $14.99 119 33% 3.6k $54k (exactly $53,514) Fishing Cactus
Harpoon Classic '97 $8.99 61 83% 1.8k $16k (exactly $16,452) Alliance Interactive
Storm Seas · EA $14.99 19 52% 570 $8.5k (exactly $8,544) Dclares Dev
FuJianStrike $6.99 22 100% 660 $4.6k (exactly $4,613) Mithril_055
Watchstander: Surface Warfare Officer Training Simulator · EA $19.99 5 80% 150 $3.0k (exactly $2,998) Enclave Gaming
Mech and Tech 1 $9.99 3 66% 90 $899 (exactly $899) colmer_it UG
Idle Space Shooter $1.99 13 30% 390 $776 (exactly $776) Phantom Prophecy Games
Tales of Arcrath $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Codex Games USA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.