Should I ship a Magic PvE game?
PvE + Magic
Of 487 developers who shipped a Magic PvE game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,086 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×309 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 1,086 games are announced against 296 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $239 (exactly $239) |
|---|---|
| Median | $719 (exactly $719) |
| Top 25% | $4.8k (exactly $4,795) |
| Top 5% | $194k (exactly $194,303) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 487 |
| Released games | 1,158 |
| Announced | 1,086 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- PvE; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action, Combat
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 76% positive over 102,325 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 255 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,086 games are announced against 296 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvE with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + TypingFair
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + HeistPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + NavalPoor odds
- + SpaceshipsPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
Comparable games
Dragon's Dogma 2 2024 · $92M 
The Elder Scrolls® Online 2017 · $81M 
Granblue Fantasy: Relink 2024 · $49M 
Far Far West 2026 · EA · $19M 
Mistfall Hunter 2026 · $12M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Dragon's Dogma 2 | older | $39.99 | 76,627 62% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $91,929,412) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | The Elder Scrolls® Online | older | $19.99 | 134,421 82% | 4.0M | $81M (exactly $80,612,274) | ZeniMax Online Studios |
| | Granblue Fantasy: Relink | older | $39.99 | 41,227 89% | 1.2M | $49M (exactly $49,460,032) | Cygames, Inc. |
| | Far Far West | · EA | $19.99 | 31,458 95% | 944k | $19M (exactly $18,865,363) | Evil Raptor |
| | Mistfall Hunter | $24.99 | 16,045 53% | 481k | $12M (exactly $12,028,936) | Bellring Games | |
 | Shape of Dreams | $24.99 | 15,769 89% | 473k | $12M (exactly $11,822,019) | Lizard Smoothie | |
 | Legion TD 2 - Multiplayer Tower Defense | older | $24.99 | 12,607 86% | 378k | $9.5M (exactly $9,451,468) | AutoAttack Games |
 | Pax Dei | $29.99 | 7,163 56% | 215k | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) | Mainframe Industries | |
 | Immortals of Aveum™ | older | $59.99 | 2,794 71% | 84k | $5.0M (exactly $5,028,362) | Ascendant Studios |
 | Rabbit and Steel | older | $14.99 | 10,159 96% | 305k | $4.6M (exactly $4,568,502) | mino_dev |
 | Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap | $29.99 | 4,053 69% | 122k | $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) | Robot Entertainment | |
 | SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream | $59.99 | 2,021 64% | 61k | $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) | Dimps Corporation | |
 | The Quinfall | $9.99 | 12,073 50% | 362k | $3.6M (exactly $3,618,278) | Vawraek Technology Inc. | |
 | YAPYAP | $9.99 | 8,385 83% | 252k | $2.5M (exactly $2,512,984) | Maison Bap | |
 | Lessaria: Fantasy Kingdom Sim | $24.90 | 2,938 77% | 88k | $2.2M (exactly $2,194,686) | Rockbee Team | |
 | Dinoblade | $19.99 | 2,420 90% | 73k | $1.5M (exactly $1,451,274) | Team Spino LLC |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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