Should I ship a Loot RPG?
RPG + Loot
Of 488 developers who shipped a Loot RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 939 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.4k, ×7.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $810k, ×1292 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 939 games are announced against 314 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $896 (exactly $896) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.4k (exactly $4,404) |
| Top 25% | $44k (exactly $44,056) |
| Top 5% | $811k (exactly $811,394) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 488 |
| Released games | 1,221 |
| Announced | 939 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG, Loot; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, Adventure
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 73% positive over 330,976 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 202 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 939 games are announced against 314 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Borderlands 3 2020 · $230M 
Path of Exile 2 2024 · EA · $151M 
Borderlands 2 2012 · $126M 
Borderlands 4 2025 · $122M 
Last Epoch 2024 · $112M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Borderlands 3 | older | $59.99 | 127,847 81% | 3.8M | $230M (exactly $230,086,246) | Gearbox Software |
| | Path of Exile 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 167,730 76% | 5.0M | $151M (exactly $150,906,681) | Grinding Gear Games |
| | Borderlands 2 | older | $19.99 | 210,364 89% | 6.3M | $126M (exactly $126,155,291) | Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (L… (Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Borderlands 4 | $69.99 | 57,874 59% | 1.7M | $122M (exactly $121,518,038) | Gearbox Software | |
| | Last Epoch | older | $34.99 | 106,364 76% | 3.2M | $112M (exactly $111,650,291) | Eleventh Hour Games |
 | Diablo® IV | older | $49.99 | 58,668 69% | 1.8M | $88M (exactly $87,984,400) | Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. |
 | Grim Dawn | older | $24.99 | 92,979 93% | 2.8M | $70M (exactly $69,706,356) | Crate Entertainment |
 | Gunfire Reborn | older | $19.99 | 88,536 93% | 2.7M | $53M (exactly $53,095,039) | Gunfire Reborn Studio |
 | Nioh 2 – The Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 33,892 87% | 1.0M | $51M (exactly $50,827,832) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | Nioh: Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 29,580 78% | 887k | $44M (exactly $44,361,126) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | Witchfire | · EA | $39.99 | 17,131 91% | 514k | $21M (exactly $20,552,061) | The Astronauts |
 | Wayfinder | $24.99 | 25,104 60% | 753k | $19M (exactly $18,820,469) | Airship Syndicate | |
 | Titan Quest II | · EA | $34.99 | 17,398 81% | 522k | $18M (exactly $18,262,681) | Grimlore Games |
 | Fellowship | · EA | $24.99 | 15,357 74% | 461k | $12M (exactly $11,513,143) | Chief Rebel |
 | Diablo II: Resurrected – Infernal Edition | $39.99 | 5,855 86% | 176k | $7.0M (exactly $7,024,244) | Blizzard Entertainment, Inc. | |
 | Farever | · EA | $19.99 | 8,968 75% | 269k | $5.4M (exactly $5,378,110) | Shiro Games |
 | Elin | · EA | $19.99 | 8,406 93% | 252k | $5.0M (exactly $5,041,078) | Lafrontier |
 | 龙胤立志传 | $19.99 | 7,153 77% | 215k | $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) | TPP Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.