Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Logic RPG?

RPG + Logic

Of 136 developers who shipped a Logic RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 204 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $100k, ×164 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 204 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 204 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 136
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $539 → $419 → $2.2k → $1.3k → $672 → $1.5k → $1.0k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 136
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,315)
Top 5% $103k (exactly $103,200)
Developers, 2 yr 136
Released games 359
Announced 204
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Logic; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Simulation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 9,432 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $900, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $100k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 69 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 204 games are announced against 80 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M Lost Judgment 2022 · $9.0M Murders on the Yangtze River 2024 · $7.1M Word Game 2022 · $6.2M Islands of Insight 2024 · $1.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
XCOM® 2 older $19.99 79,998 84% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,974,801) Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Lost Judgment older $39.99 7,461 93% 224k $9.0M (exactly $8,950,962) RGG Studio
Murders on the Yangtze River older $14.99 15,833 96% 475k $7.1M (exactly $7,120,100) OMEGAMES STUDIO
Word Game older $34.99 5,930 93% 178k $6.2M (exactly $6,224,721) Team9
Islands of Insight older $29.99 1,604 75% 48k $1.4M (exactly $1,443,119) Lunarch Studios
THE 4 SINS older $9.99 3,377 23% 101k $1.0M (exactly $1,012,087) 奇门互娱
CaseCracker older $9.99 3,314 89% 99k $993k (exactly $993,206) BlackRobe
Stone Story RPG older $29.99 893 90% 27k $803k (exactly $803,432) Rex Games, standardcombo
Little Rocket Lab $19.99 1,286 90% 39k $771k (exactly $771,214) Teenage Astronauts
Trials of Innocence $16.99 1,308 91% 39k $667k (exactly $666,688) 猫龙游戏
Game of Fate 2: A Century's Promise $15.99 1,054 78% 32k $506k (exactly $505,604) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Game Of Fate 3：Clash Of Crowns $16.79 734 85% 22k $370k (exactly $369,716) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Game of Fate: Chasing Through Time $10.99 986 88% 30k $325k (exactly $325,084) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
Misty Judgment $8.99 1,170 92% 35k $316k (exactly $315,549) 次元边界
Trainee Death Simulator $5.99 1,746 92% 52k $314k (exactly $313,756) Bone Nail
Atomcraft $14.99 407 94% 12k $183k (exactly $183,028) Triplejump
The Simen Rumors $8.00 430 78% 13k $103k (exactly $103,200) 羊之口
Queens Casino $9.99 311 98% 9.3k $93k (exactly $93,207) sartahouse

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.