Do I ship it?

Games › Programming › Programming + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Programming Logic game?

Programming + Logic

Of 98 developers who shipped a Programming Logic game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 125 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 125 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 125 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Programming + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 98
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $16k → $7.4k → $2.3k → $959 → $1.1k → $1.6k (still earning) → $848 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Programming + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 98
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $9.4k (exactly $9,444)
Top 5% $204k (exactly $204,007)
Developers, 2 yr 98
Released games 286
Announced 125
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Programming
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Programming, Logic; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Puzzle, Automation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 13,387 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $9.4k, 1 in 20 over $200k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 125 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Programming with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Base BuildingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + Auto BattlerFair14 devs · median $14k · 14 announced
  3. + RogueliteFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  4. + SandboxFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  5. + Time ManagementFair15 devs · median $7.0k · 26 announced
  6. + AutomationFair84 devs · median $3.8k · 102 announced
  7. + Turn-Based TacticsFair14 devs · median $2.4k · 16 announced
  8. + SimulationFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced
  9. + RobotsFair24 devs · median $1.8k · 29 announced
  10. + CrimeFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 13 announced
  11. + Sci-fiFair56 devs · median $1.7k · 63 announced
  12. + FuturisticFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 25 announced

All 57 pairs on the Programming page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Baba Is You 2019 · $9.4M Hacknet 2015 · $5.1M Opus Magnum 2017 · $3.6M Turing Complete 2021 · EA · $3.3M while True: learn() 2019 · $2.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baba Is You older $14.99 21,011 97% 630k $9.4M (exactly $9,448,647) Hempuli Oy
Hacknet older $9.99 16,910 93% 507k $5.1M (exactly $5,067,927) Team Fractal Alligator
Opus Magnum older $19.99 5,964 97% 179k $3.6M (exactly $3,576,611) Zachtronics
Turing Complete · EA older $19.99 5,520 95% 166k $3.3M (exactly $3,310,344) LevelHead
while True: learn() older $12.99 7,350 91% 221k $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) Luden.io
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
SHENZHEN I/O older $14.99 3,746 95% 112k $1.7M (exactly $1,684,576) Zachtronics
Human Resource Machine older $14.99 3,274 94% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,472,318) Tomorrow Corporation
Infinifactory older $24.99 1,790 95% 54k $1.3M (exactly $1,341,963) Zachtronics
Grey Hack · EA older $19.99 1,801 90% 54k $1.1M (exactly $1,080,060) Loading Home
Kaizen: A Factory Story $19.99 694 91% 21k $416k (exactly $416,192) Coincidence
Database Detective: Minor Crimes Division $14.99 850 97% 26k $382k (exactly $382,245) Thomas Hsu
Data Center $8.99 916 76% 27k $247k (exactly $247,045) Waseku
JOY OF PROGRAMMING - Software Engineering Simulator $17.99 378 76% 11k $204k (exactly $204,007) Prof. Scherer
Tower Networking Inc. · EA $19.99 317 95% 9.5k $190k (exactly $190,105) Pocosia Studios
Net.Attack() - Code or Die! $7.99 510 80% 15k $122k (exactly $122,247) ByteRockers' Games
Code: Terraform · EA $14.99 252 85% 7.6k $113k (exactly $113,324) AppsMafia
U.V.S. Nirmana $14.99 213 88% 6.4k $96k (exactly $95,786) Coincidence
Quantum Odyssey · EA $17.99 141 92% 4.2k $76k (exactly $76,098) Quarks Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.