Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Local Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Multiplayer RPG?

RPG + Local Multiplayer

Of 81 developers who shipped a Local Multiplayer RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 113 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×542 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 113 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 113 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Local Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 81
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $24k → $6.6k → $16k → $11k → $11k → $600 (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Local Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 81
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Top 25% $51k (exactly $50,949)
Top 5% $341k (exactly $340,630)
Developers, 2 yr 81
Released games 308
Announced 113
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Local Multiplayer; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Local Co-Op
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 18,163 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $340k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 44 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 113 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Castle Crashers® 2012 · $49M DYNASTY WARRIORS 8: Xtreme Legends Complete Edition 2014 · $18M For The King II 2023 · $9.5M Heroes® of Might & Magic® III - HD Edition 2015 · $9.1M Wizard of Legend 2018 · $8.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Castle Crashers® older $14.99 109,654 96% 3.3M $49M (exactly $49,311,404) The Behemoth
DYNASTY WARRIORS 8: Xtreme Legends Complete Edition older $49.99 11,886 83% 357k $18M (exactly $17,825,434) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Heroes® of Might & Magic® III - HD Edition older $14.99 20,127 79% 604k $9.1M (exactly $9,051,112) Dotemu
Wizard of Legend older $15.99 17,322 91% 520k $8.3M (exactly $8,309,363) Contingent99
Barony older $19.99 12,714 90% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,624,586) Turning Wheel LLC
Rotwood $29.99 7,459 74% 224k $6.7M (exactly $6,710,862) Klei Entertainment
NARUTO SHIPPUDEN: Ultimate Ninja STORM 3 Full Burst HD older $19.99 10,749 89% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,446,175) CyberConnect2 Co. Ltd.
Magicka older $9.99 19,174 84% 575k $5.7M (exactly $5,746,448) Arrowhead Game Studios
One Piece Burning Blood older $49.99 3,751 81% 113k $5.6M (exactly $5,625,375) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
UFO 50 $24.99 7,134 94% 214k $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) Mossmouth
Tales of Graces f Remastered $39.99 773 87% 23k $927k (exactly $927,368) TOSE CO., LTD.
CAPTAIN TSUBASA 2: WORLD FIGHTERS $59.99 330 50% 9.9k $594k (exactly $593,901) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
DuneCrawl $19.99 568 74% 17k $341k (exactly $340,630) Alientrap
Disc Golf Masters · EA $24.99 427 83% 13k $320k (exactly $320,122) Spinoff Games
DOKAPON! Sword of Fury $24.99 354 85% 11k $265k (exactly $265,394) Sting
Coridden $19.99 426 89% 13k $255k (exactly $255,472) Aftnareld
SEDAP! A Culinary Adventure $14.99 517 70% 16k $232k (exactly $232,495) kopiforge
Tales of Berseria Remastered $39.99 175 70% 5.3k $210k (exactly $209,948) D.A.G Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.