Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Local Co-Op

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Co-Op RPG?

RPG + Local Co-Op

Of 107 developers who shipped a Local Co-Op RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 162 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.3k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.0M, ×4835 the market median. Revenue is up 265% on the market; 162 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 265% on the market, 162 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Local Co-Op
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 107
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $14k → $24k → $7.6k → $9.0k → $6.0k → $11k → $17k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Local Co-Op: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 107
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Median $7.3k (exactly $7,302)
Top 25% $80k (exactly $80,360)
Top 5% $3.0M (exactly $3,036,094)
Developers, 2 yr 107
Released games 451
Announced 162
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 265% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Local Co-Op
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Local Co-Op; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Co-op, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 61,741 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $7.3k, 1 in 4 over $80k, 1 in 20 over $3.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 8 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 162 games are announced against 65 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
Castle Crashers® older $14.99 109,654 96% 3.3M $49M (exactly $49,311,404) The Behemoth
Vampire Survivors older $4.99 251,686 98% 7.6M $38M (exactly $37,677,394) poncle
DRAGON BALL XENOVERSE older $64.98 17,554 89% 527k $34M (exactly $34,219,768) DIMPS
Divinity: Original Sin - Enhanced Edition older $39.99 27,485 88% 825k $33M (exactly $32,973,754) Larian Studios
Outward Definitive Edition older $39.99 24,636 72% 739k $30M (exactly $29,555,809) Nine Dots Studio
Tales of Berseria™ older $49.99 14,380 91% 431k $22M (exactly $21,565,686) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
ONE PIECE: PIRATE WARRIORS 4 older $39.99 17,281 91% 518k $21M (exactly $20,732,016) Koei Tecmo
Grounded 2 · EA $29.99 21,442 82% 643k $19M (exactly $19,291,367) Obsidian Entertainment, Eidos-Montréal
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
Absolum $24.99 9,399 91% 282k $7.0M (exactly $7,046,430) Dotemu, Guard Crush Games, Supamonks
Rotwood $29.99 7,459 74% 224k $6.7M (exactly $6,710,862) Klei Entertainment
Lost Castle 2 $17.99 10,851 78% 326k $5.9M (exactly $5,856,285) Hunter Studio
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Splintered Fate $29.99 4,143 83% 124k $3.7M (exactly $3,727,457) Super Evil Megacorp
The Adventures of Elliot: The Millennium Tales $59.99 1,687 78% 51k $3.0M (exactly $3,036,094) Square Enix, Claytechworks
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door
Dragonkin: The Banished $24.99 2,239 72% 67k $1.7M (exactly $1,678,578) Eko Software
The Lord of the Rings: War in the North™ - Legacy Edition $19.99 1,858 83% 56k $1.1M (exactly $1,114,243) Aspyr Media
Tales of Graces f Remastered $39.99 773 87% 23k $927k (exactly $927,368) TOSE CO., LTD.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.