Do I ship it?

Games › Crafting › Crafting + Metroidvania

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Metroidvania?

Crafting + Metroidvania

Only 10 developers shipped a Crafting Metroidvania in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Primal Planet, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×10 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $34k, ×54 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×601 the market median. Revenue is up 5460% on the market; 61 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 54.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 5460% on the market, 61 announced, ×10 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Metroidvania
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.9k → $599 → $1.8k → $93k → $211k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Metroidvania: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $959 (exactly $959)
Median $34k (exactly $34,183)
Top 25% $211k (exactly $211,415)
Top 5% $377k (exactly $377,211)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 39
Announced 61
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $17.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 5460% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Metroidvania
Price point
$17.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 82% positive over 1,706 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $960, median $34k, 1 in 4 over $210k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $960. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×10 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night 2019 · $35M Eastshade 2019 · $3.9M Primal Planet 2025 · $377k Never Grave: The Witch and The Curse 2026 · $277k Tombwater 2026 · $211k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bloodstained: Ritual of the Night older $39.99 29,588 93% 888k $35M (exactly $35,496,724) ArtPlay
Eastshade older $24.99 5,183 89% 155k $3.9M (exactly $3,885,695) Eastshade Studios
Primal Planet $19.99 629 88% 19k $377k (exactly $377,211) Seethingswarm
Never Grave: The Witch and The Curse $16.99 543 72% 16k $277k (exactly $276,767) Frontside 180
Tombwater $24.99 282 92% 8.5k $211k (exactly $211,415) Moth Atlas
Magical Delicacy older $24.99 240 77% 7.2k $180k (exactly $179,928) Skaule
Kentum $17.99 172 75% 5.2k $93k (exactly $92,828) Tlön Industries
Songbringer older $19.99 130 80% 3.9k $78k (exactly $77,961) Wizard Fu
Mask of Mists older $14.99 171 85% 5.1k $77k (exactly $76,899) 9 Eyes Game Studio
Yuma Nest · EA $19.99 57 89% 1.7k $34k (exactly $34,183) Piokou
Star Mission: Remote Sectors $9.99 10 80% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Ralph Schaedler
Neanderthallica $7.99 4 100% 120 $959 (exactly $959) Cheers LLC
Bloodright $6.99 3 66% 90 $629 (exactly $629) OcO
Cozy Together ☕ · EA $0.99 6 66% 180 $178 (exactly $178) Jofer's Games
The Solyani's Code $24.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) ANGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.