Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Metroidvania

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Metroidvania Souls-like?

Souls-like + Metroidvania

Of 102 developers who shipped a Metroidvania Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 335 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×9.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×1064 the market median. Revenue is up 420% on the market; 335 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 420% on the market, 335 announced, ×5.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Metroidvania
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 102
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $27k → $10k → $12k → $56k → $9.6k → $15k → $27k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Metroidvania: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 102
Bottom 30% $3.4k (exactly $3,355)
Median $14k (exactly $14,086)
Top 25% $137k (exactly $137,331)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,594,186)
Developers, 2 yr 102
Released games 304
Announced 335
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 420% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Metroidvania
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Metroidvania; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, RPG
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Difficult
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 432,575 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.4k, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.4k. 7 in 10 of the 47 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 335 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hollow Knight: Silksong $19.99 386,977 89% 12M $232M (exactly $232,070,107) Team Cherry
Hollow Knight older $14.99 502,960 96% 15M $226M (exactly $226,181,112) Team Cherry
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
Ori and the Will of the Wisps older $29.99 136,019 96% 4.1M $122M (exactly $122,376,294) Moon Studios GmbH
Dead Cells older $24.99 156,263 97% 4.7M $117M (exactly $117,150,371) Motion Twin
Blasphemous older $24.99 54,724 90% 1.6M $41M (exactly $41,026,583) The Game Kitchen
Nine Sols older $29.99 40,138 94% 1.2M $36M (exactly $36,112,159) RedCandleGames
Rain World older $24.99 46,871 94% 1.4M $35M (exactly $35,139,189) Videocult
ENDER LILIES: Quietus of the Knights older $24.99 43,092 93% 1.3M $32M (exactly $32,306,072) Live Wire, Adglobe
Skul: The Hero Slayer older $19.99 50,801 93% 1.5M $30M (exactly $30,465,360) SOUTHPAW GAMES
ENDER MAGNOLIA: Bloom in the Mist $24.99 17,143 95% 514k $13M (exactly $12,852,107) Adglobe, Live Wire
Windblown · EA $24.99 9,066 88% 272k $6.8M (exactly $6,796,780) Motion Twin
Mandragora: Whispers of the Witch Tree $39.99 3,026 75% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,630,292) Primal Game Studio
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
SiNiSistar 2 $14.99 3,545 90% 106k $1.6M (exactly $1,594,186) Uu
GRIME II $27.99 1,892 86% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,588,712) Clover Bite
Kotama and Academy Citadel $19.99 2,542 80% 76k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,437) Atomstring Games
Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter $24.99 1,851 79% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) Odd Bug Studio
Journey of Realm:Dawn Dew $10.99 2,233 97% 67k $736k (exactly $736,220) 葱色兔兔/Scallion Rabbit

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.