Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Investigation game?

Investigation + Lovecraftian

Of 56 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Investigation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 104 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.2k, ×15 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $620k, ×1319 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 104 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 104 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 56
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $47k → $32k → $4.9k → $4.8k → $9.3k → $8.5k → $9.0k (still earning) → $5.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 56
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $7.2k (exactly $7,195)
Top 25% $60k (exactly $59,597)
Top 5% $627k (exactly $626,749)
Developers, 2 yr 56
Released games 150
Announced 104
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Investigation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 10,963 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $7.2k, 1 in 4 over $59k, 1 in 20 over $620k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 104 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  10. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  11. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced
  12. + NoirPoor odds112 devs · median $5.5k · 230 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Demonologist older $19.99 18,886 85% 567k $11M (exactly $11,325,934) Clock Wizard Games
Strange Horticulture older $15.99 14,867 94% 446k $7.1M (exactly $7,131,700) Bad Viking
The Sinking City Remastered older $39.99 5,361 75% 161k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,592) Frogwares
The Casting of Frank Stone™ older $29.99 5,580 62% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,020,326) Supermassive Games
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
Sherlock Holmes The Awakened older $39.99 2,612 81% 78k $3.1M (exactly $3,133,616) Frogwares
The Room VR: A Dark Matter older $24.99 3,866 97% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,898,340) Fireproof Games
Call of the Sea older $19.99 4,535 87% 136k $2.7M (exactly $2,719,640) Out of the Blue Games
Lust from Beyond older $19.99 4,057 81% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,432,983) Movie Games Lunarium
Shadows Over Loathing older $22.99 3,120 95% 94k $2.2M (exactly $2,151,864) Asymmetric
The Sinking City 2 $49.99 1,410 83% 42k $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577) Frogwares
Strange Antiquities $17.99 3,288 95% 99k $1.8M (exactly $1,774,534) Bad Viking
The House of Tesla: Definitive Edition $24.99 836 72% 25k $627k (exactly $626,749) Blue Brain Games
Whisper Mountain Outbreak · EA $7.99 2,421 84% 73k $580k (exactly $580,314) Toge Productions
Do No Harm $15.99 896 74% 27k $430k (exactly $429,811) Darts Games
ASYLUM $24.99 421 84% 13k $316k (exactly $315,624) Senscape
Cthulhu: The Cosmic Abyss $39.99 262 54% 7.9k $314k (exactly $314,321) Big Bad Wolf
The Dark Rites of Arkham $14.99 655 97% 20k $295k (exactly $294,554) Postmodern Adventures
The Horror at Highrook $19.99 461 90% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Nullpointer Games
Call of the Elder Gods $24.99 313 89% 9.4k $235k (exactly $234,656) Out of the Blue Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.