Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Investigation game?

Investigation + LGBTQ+

Of 42 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Investigation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 70 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $39k, ×81 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $9.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $6.1M, ×12962 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 70 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 81.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 70 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $17k → $8.5k → $144k → $196k → $31k → $23k (still earning) → $54k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $9.9k (exactly $9,890)
Median $39k (exactly $38,661)
Top 25% $179k (exactly $179,310)
Top 5% $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 124
Announced 70
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Investigation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Interactive Fiction, Choices Matter
Price point
$12.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $12.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 66,289 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $9.9k, median $39k, 1 in 4 over $170k, 1 in 20 over $6.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $9.9k. 4 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 70 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  5. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  6. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  7. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  8. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  9. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  10. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  11. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced
  12. + NoirPoor odds112 devs · median $5.5k · 230 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle $69.99 13,058 89% 392k $27M (exactly $27,417,883) MachineGames
Magical Girl Witch Trials $29.99 29,869 96% 896k $27M (exactly $26,873,139) Acacia, Re,AER
Bugsnax older $24.99 8,673 97% 260k $6.5M (exactly $6,502,148) Young Horses
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
The Roottrees are Dead $19.99 9,700 96% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,817,090) Evil Trout Inc.
Ace Attorney Investigations Collection older $39.99 3,401 96% 102k $4.1M (exactly $4,080,180) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
This Bed We Made older $24.99 3,187 90% 96k $2.4M (exactly $2,389,294) Lowbirth Games
No Sleep For Kaname Date - From AI: THE SOMNIUM FILES $39.99 835 79% 25k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,750) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Great God Grove $19.99 1,381 98% 41k $828k (exactly $828,186) LimboLane
1666: Amsterdam · EA $29.99 784 63% 24k $705k (exactly $705,365) Panache Digital Games
Old Skies $19.99 969 93% 29k $581k (exactly $581,109) Wadjet Eye Games
Best Served Cold $17.99 671 87% 20k $362k (exactly $362,139) Rogueside
The Beekeeper's Picnic - A Sherlockian Adventure $13.99 467 97% 14k $196k (exactly $196,000) The Wonder Room

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.